8 Demographic Environment

Deven Mahajan

1.Learning Outcome:

After completing this module the students will be able to:

Understand the concept of Demographic Environment in India Learn the basics of Demographic Environment in India

Interpret the terminology related to Demographic Environment in India

2. Introduction

India is second most populous country and projected to be most populous country in the world by 2022.More than 50% of the population of India is below the age of 25.In 2020, India is expected to be in the average age group of 29 years. The demographic environment includes such important aspects as and sex profiles, age family life‐cycle stages, population size and growth rates, occupation patterns, levels of education etc.

2.1. Low Sex Ratio in India

It was being expected after independence that in the society women will have better role to play and it would improve sex ratio of the states. However sex ratio declined in many states. Although South Indian states have better sex ratio. Since 1961 Kerla is the only state where sex ratio has risen. However the states where economic growth is higher in post independence period have not any attention towards women empowerment. North western states have highly unequal gender relations.

Which has resulted into low female labour participation rates, bigger gender gap in literacy rates, female property rights restrictions, in fertility decisions the preference for male child. Although in the southern parts of the country the position of women is better in social standing. As compared to high income countries, the low and middle income countries have a higher rate at which girls and women die relative to men in these countries. These deaths in low and middle income countries are due to poor overall health environment of the country.

3. Definition of Demography

“The statistical study of human populations especially with reference to size and density, distribution, and vital statistics is called demography”

Demography is the “Study of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of human population.

Demography is “the study of changes in the number of births, marriages, deaths, etc. in a particular area during a period of time”

4. Demographic Dividend

When due to working age people rising share in the population, there is rising rate in economic growth and it may occur with falling birth rate and shift of population age structure towards working ages, this is known as Demographic Dividend.

4.1. Economic Growth Impact

Many Asian countries are expected to have a benefit from age structure change in coming years as there will be a growth in working age population as compared to growth of child population which will lead to low dependency ratio. This will impact the economic growth.

4.1.1. Due to age structure transition the saving rate is expected to be higher. Hence for investment purposes in the country capital resources will be generated due to demographic dividend. The reason is that surplus available for investment depends upon ratio of actual workforce to those who are outside the workforce. It means that for investment purpose large surplus is available due to higher share of workers to the non workers in the population of a country. Hence low dependency ratio periods have higher growth rate. Whereas there is low growth rate when high dependency ratio is expected to generate low surplus for investment.

4.1.2. Labour market may have entry of more women due to fertility rate decline which may result in increased economic activity. Due to time to be spent on child care and due to high fertility there is hurdle in entry of women in labour market. Women can spend more time on economic activities due to decline in fertility. This may boost economic growth.

4.1.3. Due to lesser number of children people invest more on health which leads to household economic benefits and better productivity. The funds will be diverted by the government to more productive activities when there is decline in number of children and lesser funds will be utilised on education and health.

4.2. Critics of Demographic Dividend

There is an argument that age distribution changes create supply side potential, although utilisation of this potential depends upon policy environment of the country.

4.2.1. On the front of education and health India is facing a major deficit. To achieve a quality workforce level from growing labour force there are bigger difficulties.

4.2.2. In the era of liberalisation workers are not in a position to be converted into for economic growth due to low skill level. There is need to exploit the opportunities due to demographic transition. As compared to China, USA, Japan and other developed countries India need to make policies to ensure in the phase of liberalisation to manage and take advantage of young population for the economic growth of the country.

4.2.3. Presently India is moving on the path of economic growth which has been possible due to the fact that resources are utilised for education and health care of the population to make them skilled and employable. The window of opportunity is open for India but it depends upon the fact that working population of country be empowered enough to make a difference. If India wants to enter into this window then there is need to empower women and be strong on education front to break the vicious circle.

4.2.3.Although window of opportunity is irrelevant as almost half of working population in India is not empowered to make a difference. Women empowerment lackness is leading to other problems which include violence on domestic front, not productive work outside home etc.There will be improvement in reproductive health skill and nutrition in upbringing of kids due to education of mother. There will be growth in productivity and contribution to growth due to improved upbringing of kids.

5. Demographic Transition Stages

As per some economists the problem of population in the underdeveloped countries is due to the result of behaviour of men for reproduction. Although this view is rejected by theory of Demographic Transition which mentions that population explosion is second stage of demographic transition which is result of rapid fall in mortality rate as compared to corresponding fall in birth rate.

5.1. Birth rate and death rate both are high during first stage and there is somewhat stability in population. If there is some increase in population it may be due to higher birth rate as compared to death rate. Per capita income of the people is low in case of backward economies where agriculture is main occupation .As a result the standard of living of the people is low .Even the basic necessities of life are not easily accessible to the people. People have unbalanced and inadequate diet. The outlook of life of the people is not rational and there are lesser opportunities for education. Mortality rate is high as medical facilities available are very much limited. Birth rate is high due to superstitions, lack of education and other social evils. People are also forced to have more children due to certain economic factors e.g. more children mean more productivity and security in old age. People don’t care about restriction to size of family and family planning. During first stage of demographic transition high death rate and high birth rate both are matched. Hence there is stability in population.

5.2. There is rapid growth in population during second stage of demographic transition as birth rate is high but mortality rate declines. Where there is development in the economy living standard of people improves. There is an expansion of education, medical facilities .Government make special efforts to fight against chronic diseases which lead to death rate slow down. Still a narrow section of the society is benefited by education and certain people do not change their attitude towards family size. As a result birth rate remains still higher, this leads to population increase. In the economies where a bigger part of population stays under poverty line there is critical situation which is called population explosion.

5.3. As for the third stage of demographic transition is concerned during this stage birth rate is also low due to which population growth is low. Population problem is solved at this stage if industrialisation is accompanied by urbanisation and there is an education widespread. City and village life both are different from each other .people are forced to reduce their family size as problem of housing in urban life compel them to do so .They understand the importance of small family. In due course of time due to education they are lesser influenced by factors of social evil which earlier motivated them for large family size. During process of economic development family earnings are supplemented by working of women and it is not easy for working women to upbring the children. In such societies children after completion of education are in a position to get good opportunities. Although in addition to general education some technical education is necessary to upgrade the skills.

6. Development Process and Urbanisation

Due to development process urbanisation is quiet obvious .Although in backward stagnant societies the urbanisation process is slow as for the people living in countryside the cities fail to offer employment opportunities. The people who migrate to cities in such societies are rarely pulled by urban life attractions, rather they are pushed by social and economic pressures of villages. In the growing economies the urbanisation process is fast as compared to stagnant backward societies. There is newly establishment of industries and ancillary activities which provide jobs to people who want to migrate to cities. As industries offer jobs to larger number of people due to strong industrial growth economic pull of the cities become strong. When as compared to total population the proportion of urban population becomes high, there is a slowdown in process of urbanisation.

6.1. Trends of Urbanisation in India

There is a difference between ‘urban growth’ and ‘urbanisation’. The net growth of population in town and cities is called ‘urban growth’ whereas in comparison to total population of a country the proportionate increase in urban population is ‘urbanisation’. For instance if rural population growth and urban population rate of growth is same so that actual urban population percentage remains same, there is no urbanisation but urban growth has occurred. But there will be a clear indication of urbanisation when as compared to rural population urban population is increasing at a faster rate out of total population of country. Over the last 100 years in India since 1911, for whole decade there is consistent increase in urban population which is greater than rural population increase. There are three factors which have increased the urban population ;( i) within urban areas a natural increase of the population. (ii) From rural to urban reclassification of settlements (iii) Migration of the people to urban areas from rural areas.

6.2. Challenges of Urban Areas

There is a bigger pressure on people of urban areas .During last two decades there is disparity in growth in between large and medium size towns. The urbanisation process have concentrated in large cities and developed regions. Over time new and innovative credit instruments have been attracted by large cities due to strong economic base and their capacity to achieve high credit ratings. Smaller towns find it difficult to finance the development projects as there is less government investment in infrastructure basic amenities. The fiscal structure of the government, financial intermediaries and credit rating agencies behaviour make s it impossible to undertake investment in infrastructure. With the growth in size of villages and inclusion of people in non agricultural activities turn towards ‘urban’.

Still they are not able to deal with urban areas problems due to administrative and policy framework. There are certain questions to be answered that due to lack of municipality institutions framework, standard urban population problems cannot be tackled like provision for water and sanitation, electricity etc.To what extent planning process is to be implemented as per requirements of the area related to land use, health care centres, community services, provision of schools and like. It is to be ensured that sufficient space be provided for public parks playing grounds and to avoid congestion. In India the present towns have a poor infrastructure related to water, sanitation, sewage, roads, housing to fulfil the needs of inhabitants. Due to mushrooming of towns there are urban challenges to rise as these towns still need good urban governance.

7. Population Growth and Economic Development

Population explosion is one of the biggest problems of India and other third world countries. It is being said that although there is an economic development in these countries but they are not in a position to match pace with population growth. These countries need to pay a serious attention towards problem of population explosion as it causes poverty which creates an obstacle on the path of economic development. Existing population is considered to be an obstacle in the economic development as compared to available resources and technology. When there is an increase in population there will be need of additional sources which will create a burden on the economy. There are certain adverse effects of population growth on the economic development.

7.1. Unemployment Situation in underdeveloped economies may increase due to population. Due to population growth pressure on agriculture increases.

7.2. It is difficult to raise per capita income level and standard of living due to rapid growth of population.

7.3. Food demand increases rapidly due to rising population. Although to keep pace with increasing demand food grain supply need to be increased. Hence such countries need large scale imports of food grains.

7.4. With growing masses government arranges for surplus food grain supply. Farmers are encouraged to produce more.

8. Population Growth Causes

The population increase in a country is affected by (i) high birth rate (ii) relative low death rate

(iii) Immigration.

Birth and death rates are not the single indication for population trends but migration level and direction also indicates population trends. Although population in India has not grown so much due to immigration .Population explosion in India is due to two reasons as mentioned earlier.

8.1. Causes of Decline of Mortality Rate

Due to availability of improved medical facilities and epidemics control mortality rate has declined after independence. As was expected in early stages of 50’s there is fall in mortality rate. As compared to 60’s the population remained almost same in 70’s as indicated by census of 1981.

8.1.1. In India during British period high mortality rate was due to famines. There is an improvement in the situation since independence. Although several times the capacity of the government was tested on front of droughts. Famines have not occurred so much after independence in large scale and problems created by droughts have been tackled in a manner so that starvation deaths have been reduced.

8.1.2. Before independence major causes of epidemics were smallpox and cholera. There is decline in mortality rate due to control over these epidemics. Malaria was another disease which has declined the mortality rate.

8.1.3. Nutrition level of people has not improved even after independence. Poverty still exists and a large number of population is living below sub human living conditions. Mortality rate has reduced due to improvement in pure drinking water supply in rural and urban areas. Efforts are also made for betterment of sanitation and hygiene facilities in villages due to lower down the mortality rate. Expansion of medical facilities and spread of education also prevented the diseases.

8.2. Causes of High Birth rate

In India family planning programmes are expected to make a decline in the growing birth rate. High fertility is due to many social and economic factors.

8.2.1. Economic Factors

8.2.1.1. Human behaviour to a large extent is affected by economic environment. Economic life of country is root cause of fertility in country. Birth rate of country is affected by three economic factors i.e. occupational distribution of population, urbanisation and poverty.

8.2.1.2. Children are not considered to be economic burden in an agrarian economy. Labour is required during the periods of harvesting, weeding and sowing times which covers almost half of the year. Hence in a country like India relatively bigger family seems to be an economic rationale.

8.2.1.3. Urbanisation in India is slow due to lesser growth of industrialisation and certain factors could not be generalised which can bring down the birth rate. The lower birth rate has not been favoured by urbanisation in India as social changes have not accompanied this.

8.2.1.4. Fertility in underdeveloped countries is increased by poverty. Large family is not the reason behind poverty, but there are large families as people are poor. The additional child is expected to generate more income sources in a poor family .Large number of children are expected to give more economic security. More number of income earners in the family means more economic asset and more amounts of family earnings.

8.2.2. Social Factors

In India high birth rate is due to social reasons also. Universality of marriage, lower ages at time of marriage, superstitions of social and religious nature, lack of education are certain social factors which cause high fertility

8.2.2.1. In India marriage is social and religious necessity. Daughters are felt to be a burden and arranged marriages results in universality of marriages. Although with changing pace of society trends related to marriage are changing.

8.2.2.2. High fertility in India is due to lower age at time of marriage. In India still around 18 years there is marriage age of women. Hence fertility rate is bound to high.

8.2.2.3. People have desire to have more children in India due to social and religious superstitions irrespective of their economic status. In Hindus it is expected that son birth is better than the birth of a girl.

8.2.2.4. Literacy rate in India is still not so higher. Female literacy although is higher in urban areas as compared to rural areas. People with lesser spread of education are expected to be superstious and continue to have more children. The contraceptive use is still more in urban educated people.

Population Explosion Remedies

Indian population size is large. There are certain remedies to sort out this problem.

9.1. As compared to agriculture sector employment, industrial sector employment is low. Poor people have no interest to reduce the size of the family. Although a large number of family persons work in family farm but some of them hardly make any contribution to output. Urbanisation increases with industrialisation. Government have to create job opportunities to people living in far away places.

9.2. Attitude of people changes with education. Educated people delay their marriage and prefer small family. Hence people are induced to family planning. There is need to improve the status of women. The discrimination among men and women in society leads to growth of family size. Social, legal and educational measures need to be taken to raise minimum age of marriage of women.

9.3. Government introduced various schemes to give incentives to people for family planning. Establishment of family planning centres is essential for family planning programme. Research in areas related to family planning control can be beneficial.

Few important sources to learn more about Demographic Environment:

1. Datt,Gaurav ,Ashwani Mahajan (2014).Indian Economy. New Delhi:S Chand & Company Pvt. Ltd.

2. Puri,V.K.,S.K. Misra (2013), Indian Economy, Mumbai: Himalaya Publishing House.

3. www.businessdictionary.com/definition..

4. www.demogr.mpg.de/…demography…/.

5. dictionary.cambridge.org/…/demography…

6.http://e-o.net/epSubPageExtractor.asp?src=manipur.Census_of_Manipur.Demographics_of_India_

7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

8. http://www.nbr.org/research/activity.aspx?id=195

9.http://www.slideshare.net/DeepaMk1/demography-of-india

10.http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/2011/RAND_WR849.pdf

11.https://www.allianz.com/en/about_us/open-knowledge/topics/demography/articles/111025-twelve-facts-about-india