32 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS: ROLE OF HUMAN BEING

Dr. Subhakanta Mohapatra

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   Contents

 

Introduction

 

Learning Objectives

 

Climate Change: Views of Scientific Community Sources of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

 

Carbon Dioxide

 

Methane

 

Nitrous Oxide

 

Fluorinated Gases

 

Global Warming Potential of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Radiative Forcing

 

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Change

 

Impact of Human activities on Climate Change: Analysis of Economic Sectors Remedial Measures to

 

Overcome the Effects of Climate Change

 

Concept of Mitigation and Adaptation

 

Need for Mitigation and Adaptation

 

Mitigation and Adaptation Measures by AR5 for Policy Makers

 

Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development Adaptation and Mitigation

 

Summary and Conclusions

 

Multiple Choice Questions

 

Answers to MCQs

 

References

 

Web Links

 

  Introduction

 

We have already discussed about various natural and human induced causes of climate change in the previous module. We have also analysed about the evidences and impacts of climate change both at global as well as national level in the same module. It has now been established that the present climate change is human induced. This is due to alarming rate of releasing of anthropogenic Green House Gases (GHG). The most significant aspect about the increases in all the major Green House Gases is that they have occurred after the industrial revolution in 18th Century which is not more than 400 years old. That is why this small historical period is named as Anthropocene (in the line of geological periods named) era. The term was coined by ecologist, Eugene F. Stoermer but has been widely popularized by the atmospheric chemist, Paul Crutzen. This is because of influence of human behaviour on the earth’s atmosphere in recent centuries is so significant that it has been affecting the living organisms on the earth. This has been reinforced by the recently published IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

 

In this module, we shall start our discussion by describing consensus among scientific community about climate change due to human activities as presented in theIPCC Fifth Assessment Report. This is followed by discussion about greenhouse gas emission and radiative forcing highlighting human contribution that led to climate change. We will also discuss about the greenhouse gas emission by different sectors of economy. In the concluding section an attempt has been made to highlight major mitigation and adaptation strategies to overcome or reduce the effect of climate change.

 

Learning Objectives

 

After reading this module, you will be able to:

  •  describe climate change due to human activities;
  • analysethe relationship between greenhouse gas emission and climate change;
  • establish the linkages between radiative forcing and human induced climate change;
  • analysethe role of different sectors of economy in climate change; and
  • suggest some mitigation and adaptation measures to overcome the effects of climate change.

   Climate Change: Views of Scientific Community

 

In the beginning, people were not in in favour of accepting the idea that the climate change is happening due to human activities. It has already been mentionedin the Module 33.However, after about two decades of scientific research conducted all over the world and compiled and produced in the form of Five Assessment Reports by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been able to create a consensus among scientific community about human induced climate change. These reports presented peer-reviewed, consensus opinions among experts in the scientific community concerning the causes of climate change. Further research areas were identified to study in detail to remove any uncertainties. The latest IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that the primary cause of climate change is human activities in 95%–100% of the cases. The Report has also concluded with 95% certainty that humans are responsible for the temperature increase during the period of 1951- 2010.

 

The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The Report has also concluded that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to surface temperature increases since the mid-20th century over every continental region except Antarctica.

 

For better understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic activities, we need to understand the trend of GHG emission and its radiative properties. Before discussing about the trend of GHG emission and its radiative properties, let us discuss the anthropogenic sources of GHGs.

 

Sources of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

 

Do you know, from where these GHGs are emanating?Practically, these emissions are coming from almost all the sectors of our economy. Let us discuss four major GHGs and their sources of origin due to anthropogenic activities. As mentioned in the module on “Climate Change: Evidences and Causes” the four major GHGs are Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O)and Fluorinated gases (mostly HFCs). Let us now discuss about major sources of emission of these four principal greenhouse gases particularly arising out of human activities.

 

Carbon Dioxide (CO2): The major sources of CO2 are mainly originated from burning coal, oil, and gas (about 75%). About 20% of the total CO2 emissions come from deforestation and decomposition of peat lands, crop residues, and organic materials in agricultural soils. Smaller amounts are produced from turning oil and gas into plastics and other compounds that eventually are decomposed into CO2 again (about 3%) as well as from manufacture of cement through decomposition of one of the main ingredients, limestone (about 3%).

 

Methane (CH4):It comes from a variety of sources.The largest source is livestock, particularly cattle and sheep (25%). This is followed by leaks from extraction, processing, and distribution of natural gas (15%). Other important sources are rice cultivation (12%), associated gas from coal production (10%), and decomposition of organic waste in waste water treatment (9%) and landfills (7%).

 

Nitrous Oxide (N2O):It mainly comes from fertilized grasslands and croplands, where nitrogen fertilizers are decomposed in the soil (35%).This is followed by animal waste (26%). Surface water polluted with nitrogen accounts for about 15%. Small amounts come from chemical factories, such as those for nylon production (5%) and waste water treatment (2%). A small quantity of N2O (about 1% of the total) comes from Cars with catalytic converters.

 

Fluorinated Gases (mostly HFCs): These gases are mainly emitted from air conditioners in cars and refrigerators, as well as from the production of industrial chemicals. SF6 is mainly used as an insulator in electrical equipment.

 

Let us discuss in brief about global warming potential

 

Global Warming Potential of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

 

Do you know what is the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of anthropogenic GHGs and how do we calculate it? GWP was developed for comparing the global warming impacts of different gases. In other words, it is a measure to calculate how much energy the emissions of 1 ton of a gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emissions of 1 ton of carbon dioxide (CO2). Therefore, calculation of GWPtakes into account both the radiative properties of a particular greenhouse gas molecule and its lifetime existence in the atmosphere, once emitted. The larger the GWP value, the more is the warming capacity of that particular given gas incomparison to CO2 over that particular time period. The time period usually used for GWPs is 100 years. This is the atmospheric life time of CO2.

 

GWP of CO2 is 1 because it is the gas being used as the reference. On the other handmethane is considerably more short-lived in the atmosphere than CO2, persisting for decades rather than centuries (Table 1). This measurement is helpful for formulation of mitigation policies.If we need to avoid a dangerous short-term climate tipping point, we might focus more effort on reducing methane because it is a particularly potent, if short lived, greenhouse gas. On the other hand, if our goal is to stabilize long-term greenhouse gas concentrations, we would be better served by focusing purely on CO2 emissions.

 

Table 1:Atmospheric Lifetime and GWP of Major Greenhouse Gases

 

*Gases emitted solely from human sources

 

Sr. No. Green House Gases Atmospheric Lifetime in Years Global Warming Potential
1 Carbon dioxide (CO2) Approx. 100 1
2 Methane (CH4) 12 23
3 Nitrous oxide (N2O) 120 310
4 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 1.5 to 264 140 to 11,700
5 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 3,200 to 50,000 6,500 to 9,000
6 Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 3, 200 23900

 

 

To have a better understanding about the global warming and climate change due to GHG emission by anthropogenic activities, we have to understand the processes of radiative forcing.

 

Radiative Forcing

 

You have already read in other modules on climatology about heat budget. Theoretically, we can say that Earth’s energy balance is zero. What does this mean? This means that the amount of energy arriving at Earth’s surface is equal to the amount of energy eventually radiated back to space. However, Earth’s climate has cycled through periods where this balance is not achieved and Earth systems are either gaining or losing heat. The term radiative forcing is also known as climate forcing. In other words, any change in the radiative balance caused by changes in atmospheric composition. Therefore, it describes the amount by which some perturbation causes Earth’s energy balance to deviate from zero. A positive forcing indicates a warming condition whereas a negative forcing indicates cooling.

 

Scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)have measured the radiative forcing caused by major long-lived greenhouse gases for the period 1979-2015.This is quantified in watts of energy affecting Earth’s energy budget. Figure 1, shows Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, as measured by NOAA. According to the figure the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index value reached 1.32 in 2012. Do you know what does this indicator convey? This indicator converts the total radiative forcing for each gas into an index by using the ratio of the Radiative Forcing (RF) for a particular year compared with the RF in 1990 (the baseline year). The graph shows that RF has increased steadily for all gases, with the proportion attributed to CO2 increasing the most (Figure 1).

 

 

Figure 1: Radiative Forcing Caused by Major Long-Lived GHGs 1979-2015

 

Source: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/styles/large/public/2016-07/climate-forcing-download1-2016.png

 

According to the Report given by Working Group I of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC which deals with the Physical Science Basis show that there is a difference in the scientific understanding of different RF effects.It has been observed that emissions can result either in an increase or a decrease in RF at the global scale.Over the past 260 years (1750-2010), emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases, black carbon, CO, and NMVOC all resulted in an increase in RF. On the other hand, emissions of SO2, organic carbon and mineral dust all contributed to a decrease in RF. Emissions of halocarbons had both a positive and negative impact on RF. Also, the emissions of NOX and NH3 have had both a positive and negative RF effect, but with a negative net impact on RF. Figure 2 further highlights that interactions between aerosols and clouds resulted in a negative RF, but that the contribution of individual emitted compounds within mixes of aerosols is unknown.

 

Figure 2: Radiative Forcing Estimates in 2011 in relation to 1750

 

Source: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/radiative-forcing-estimates-in-2011/image_original

 

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Change

 

As mentioned in the previous module as well as in the initial section of this module that the increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2and other greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities is the major cause for global climate change has now been established. According to an analysis undertaken by Mann and Kump has revealed that out of all the major greenhouse gases, percentage share of CO2 emission is highest. Therefore, it plays a significant role in human induced climate change. If we analyse contribution of major GHGs, it has been observed that CO2 accounted for more than three fourth of the emission (about 77%). The other GHGs which plays a significant role are methane (about 14%), nitrous oxide (about 8%), and the chlorofluorocarbons constitute the remaining 1% (Figure 3). The same has also been reported by IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

 

Figure3: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas: 2004

Source:https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo469/node/181

 

According to IPCC Fifth Assessment Report titled ‘Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report,cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere between 1750 and 2011 were 2040 ± 310 GtCO2(Gt=Gigatonne, one gigatonne is equal to one billion tonnes). Out of the total cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions, about 40% have remained in the atmosphere (880 ± 35 GtCO2). The remaining was removed from the atmosphere and stored in plants and soils on land and in the ocean. These vegetation and soil on land and in oceans are major source of carbon sinks. If we analyse CO2 emission over the time period, it has been observed that about half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years. The trend analysis has also revealed that total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase over 1970 to 2010 with larger absolute increases between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 4).This has happened despite of a growing number of climate change mitigation policies implemented across the world.

 

 

Figure 4: Trends of Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions: 1750-2011

 

      Anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 have reached 49 ± 4.5 GtCO2-eq/yr. Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% of the total GHG emissions increase from 1970 to 2010, with a similar percentage contribution for the increase during the period 2000 to 2010. As mentioned earlier, at global level, economic and population growth continued to be the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The contribution of population growth between 2000 and 2010 remained roughly identical to the previous three decades, while the contribution of economic growth has risen sharply. Increased use of coal has reversed the long-standing trend of gradual decarbonisation of the world’s energy supply.Do you know what decarbonisation is? Decarbonisation refers to reducing the carbon intensity of energy.

 

Therefore, major strategies for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions are to control the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, land-use change and the burning of vegetation. If we succeed in doing so, then this would lead to decrease in the projected rate and magnitude of warming. In other words, future climate change would be determined by historic, current and future emissions of these greenhouse gases.

 

Impact of Human activities on Climate Change: Analysis of Economic Sectors

 

Analysis of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions according to the sectors of the economy (Figure 5) reveals that energy supply is the largest (26%) contributors of GHG, followed by industry (19%), the forest sector (17%), agriculture (14%), transport (13%), the building sector (8%), and waste management (3%). Confusion can arise around sector contributions because emissions can be counted in different ways. The numbers given above are based on emissions at the point where they enter the atmosphere (so-called ‘point of emission allocation’). So emissions from electricity generation are counted under the energy supply sector. However, it can be more useful to count such emissions under the sector where that electricity is used (socalled ‘‘end-use allocation’’). That can give a better picture of how electricity emissions

 

Figure 5: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector: 2004

Source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo469/node/181

 

It is useful to know what the historical contributions to our emissions have been from the various sectors. Looking forward towards the future, it is also important to know which sectors are growing most rapidly in their contribution to anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. By comparing emissions rates during the middle of the past decade with those at the beginning of the 1990s, it has been observed that the largest absolute increase (an increase of nearly 3 gigatons/year of CO2 released) has been in the energy sector.Other sectors such as transport and forestry have shown similar (35-40%) increases in emissions over this time frame. It is logical to conclude that these sectors might demand special attention in considering possible emissions mitigation approaches.

 

According to the latest IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 2014, the total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased by about 10 GtCO2-eq between 2000 and 2010. This increase directly came from the energy (47%), industry (30%), transport (11%) and building (3%) sectors (medium confidence). Accounting for indirect emissions raises the contributions by the building and industry sectors (high confidence). Since 2000, GHG emissions have been growing in all sectors, except in agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). In 2010, 35% of GHG emissions were released by the energy sector, 24% (net emissions) from AFOLU, 21% by industry, 14% by transport and 6.4% by the building sector(Figure 6). When emissions from electricity and heat production are attributed to the sectors that use the final energy (i.e., indirect emissions), the shares of the industry and building sectors in global GHG emissions are increased to 31% and 19%, respectively.

 

Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. According to the Working Group III Report on Summary for Policy Makers revealed that the contribution of population growth between 2000 and 2010 remained roughly identical to that of the previous three decades, while the contribution of economic growth has risen sharply (high confidence). The Report has also revealed that between 2000 and 2010, both drivers outpaced emission reductions from improvements in energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP). This has happened due to increased use of coal relative to other energy sources. This has reversed the long-standing trend in gradual decarbonisation of energy of the world’s energy supply.

 

Figure 6: Greenhouse Gas Emission by Economic Sector: 2010

 

Source: http://www.bestclimatepractices.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/IPCC-WGIII-AR5-2014-emissions-by-economic-sectors-fig-TS3-Crop.png

 

Remedial Measures to Overcome the Effects of Climate Change

 

In climate change discourse, there are two approaches to address human induced climate change. These are mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation has the long history in the climate policy, whereas the adaptation has recently gained importance.

 

The Concept of Mitigation and Adaptation: The concept ‘mitigation’ in general means the reduction of the atmospheric GHGs, and hence, we can avoid the likelihood of the occurrence of the climatic variability and extreme events. IPCC defines mitigation as“an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.” On the other hand, the notion ‘adaptation’ in general refers to the individual, communities, and societies to adjust their activities, life courses and location to take an opportunity, to get advantage from the fluxes of the social-ecological systems. The climate change literature views it as “the adjustment in human and natural systems to actual or expected climatic stimuli, which can reduce the negative impacts and take advantage of the positive” (UNFCC 1992).

 

The Need for Mitigation and Adaptation:As mentioned above, climate change has severe non-linear impacts on the wellbeing of the human society. Many developing nations have already experienced weather related extreme events in terms of floods, droughts, heat waves and tropical cyclones that are more frequent or intense than previous experiences. In general, it affects different sectors, such as fresh water resources and their management, food and fibre and forest products, coastal system and low lying areas, and health etc. The resulting impacts will have significant consequences on the environment, production systems and livelihood from future climate variability and change. Importantly, the developing nations are facing more burdens as compared to the developed nations (Stern, 2006; and Mendelsohn et al., 2006). Meanwhile, Stern has estimated “if we don’t act, the overall damage cost will be equivalent to at least 5 percent of GDP now and forever, and if wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20 percent of the GDP or more” (Stern, 2006).

 

Mitigation and Adaptation Measures by AR5 for Policy Makers

 

IPCC Fifth Assessment Reporthas giventhe following major suggestions related to mitigation and adaptation. There are two broad suggestions related to mitigation and adaptation. Under these two broad suggestions, there are five important specific suggestions. Let us discus broad suggestions as well as specific suggestions given under broad suggestions.

 

1. Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development:Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing and managing the risks of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades can reduce climate risks in the 21st century and beyond, increase prospects for effective adaptation, reduce the costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer term and contribute to climate-resilient pathways for sustainable development.

 

1.1 Climate Change Risks Reduction by Mitigation and Adaptation:Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence). Mitigation involves some level of co-benefits and of risks due to adverse side effects, but these risks do not involve the same possibility of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts as risks from climate change, increasing the benefits from near-term mitigation efforts.

 

1.2 Characteristics of Adaptation Pathways:Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness, especially with greater magnitudes and rates of climate change. Taking a longer-term perspective, in the context of sustainable development, increases the likelihood that more immediate adaptation actions will also enhance future options and preparedness.

 

1.3 Characteristics of Mitigation Pathways:There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social and institutional challenges, which increase with delays in additional mitigation and if key technologies are not available. Limiting warming to lower or higher levels involves similar challenges but on different timescales.

   

  2. Adaptation and Mitigation: Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change, but no single option is sufficient by itself. Effective implementation depends on policies and cooperation at all scales and can be enhanced through integrated responses that link adaptation and mitigation with other societal objectives.

 

2.1 Common Enabling Factors and Constraints for Adaptation and Mitigation Responses: Adaptation and mitigation responses are underpinned by common enabling factors. These include effective institutions and governance, innovation and investments in environmentally sound technologies and infrastructure, sustainable livelihoods and behavioral and lifestyle choices.

 

2.2 Response Options for Adaptation: Adaptation options exist in all sectors, but their context for implementation and potential to reduce climate-related risks differs across sectors and regions. Some adaptation responses involve significant co-benefits, synergies and trade-offs. Increasing climate change will increase challenges for many adaptation options.

 

2.3 Response Options for Mitigation: Mitigation options are available in every major sector. Mitigation can be more cost-effective if using an integrated approach that combines measures to reduce energy use and the greenhouse gas intensity of end-use sectors, decarbonize energy supply, reduce net emissions and enhance carbon sinks in land-based sectors.

 

2.4 Policy Approaches for Adaptation and Mitigation, Technology and Finance:

 

Effective adaptation and mitigation responses will depend on policies and measures across multiple scales: international, regional, national and sub-national. Policies across all scales supporting technology development, diffusion and transfer, as well as finance for responses to climate change, can complement and enhance the effectiveness of policies that directly promote adaptation and mitigation.

 

2.5 Trade-offs, Synergies and Interactions with Sustainable Development: Climate change is a threat to sustainable development. Nonetheless, there are many opportunities to link mitigation, adaptation and the pursuit of other societal objectives through integrated responses (high confidence). Successful implementation relies on relevant tools, suitable governance structures and enhanced capacity to respond (medium confidence).

 

(Source: Climate Change 2014, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, pp. 17-31.)

 

Summary and Conclusions

 

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that the primary cause of climate change is human activities in 95%–100% of the cases. The Report has also concluded with 95% certainty that humans are responsible for the temperature increase during the period of 1951- 2010.

 

Between 1990 and 1999, an estimated 6.3 GtCO2/year was released due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and another 1.6 GtCO2/year was released due to the burning of forest vegetation. This was offset by the absorption of 2.3 GtCO2/year each by growing vegetation and the oceans. This left a balance of 3.3 GtCO2/year in the atmosphere. Controlling the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, land-use change and the burning of vegetation are therefore, obvious opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and can decrease the projected rate and magnitude of warming.

 

The term radiative forcing describes the amount by which some perturbation causes Earth’s energy balance to deviate from zero. A positive forcing indicates a warming condition whereas a negative forcing indicates cooling.

 

If we organize the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions according to the sectors of the economy, we see that energy supply is the largest (26%) contributors of GHG, followed by industry (19%), the forest sector (17%), agriculture (14%), transport (13%), the building sector (8%), and waste management (3%).

 

Remedial measures to overcome or reduce the effects of climate change can be addressed by undertaking both adaptation and mitigation measures. According to IPCC mitigation refers to an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. According to UNFCC adaptation refers to the adjustment in human and natural systems to actual or expected climatic stimuli, which can reduce the negative impacts and take advantage of the positive.

 

IPCC Fifth Assessment Reporthas giventhe following major suggestions related to mitigation and adaptation. There are two broad suggestions related to mitigation and adaptation. Under these two broad suggestions, there are five important specific suggestions.

 

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References

  • Christopherson, R. W. and Birkeland, G. H. (2015) ‘Chapter 11 Climate Change” in Geosystems An Introduction to Physical Geography, Harlow, England: Pearson Education Limited
  • IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
  • Metz, B. (2010) Controlling Climate Change, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press van der Linden, Hanson, C. E. (eds.) 2007. IPCC ‘Summary for Policy Makers’. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UK: Cambridge University Press.

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