1 HISTORY OF CLIMATOLOGY AS A DISCIPLINE

Dr. Kanchan Singh

Objectives

describe the historical contexts of climate, explain the climatic variations over time and across places, discuss various discoveries related to climate, analyze the technological advances in observation, recording, registration, issuing weather warnings/alerts and forecasts, discuss the techniques used for simulations, modeling, and monitoring of huge data base, understand the causes of climate change and its consequences.

Contents

Introduction

Learning Objectives

Scientific discoveries and events related to climate

Early attempts to understand the climate

Climatology pioneers

Climatology as an academic discipline

Inter disciplinary collaborations

System based analysis

Earth observation

Global warming debate: History of climate change science

History of climate change science

Publications related to climatology

Summary and conclusions

References

Web links

Multiple choice questions

Answers to MCQs

Introduction

Climatology is a branch of atmospheric sciences. It is devoted to the description and analysis of climates on the surface of the earth and its interaction with plants and animal life forms. Climatology is defined as the average weather condition of a place over a long period of time. Climate has to do with the atmospheric conditions over an extended to indefinite period of time. Atmospheric phenomenon always exercised a decisive role in the origin, development and activities of all life forms. Humans were always interested in decoding the mystery of atmospheric elements. Initially in oral tradition and later in written form, atmospheric elements occupied a central place in describing and creating awareness about the natural phenomenon.

The Ancient Greeks believed that climates were nothing more than temperature gradients varying along latitude belts. Aristotle’s seminal work ‘Meteorologica’ presents behavior of weather across altitudes and latitudes. Aristotle is most often credited with the beginning of scientific thinking in the western world and he based his conclusions on empirical evidence. His influence is still felt today in many of the sciences, especially in medicine and the “natural” sciences such as earth science, biology, geology, and sub-disciplines. A brief treatise of habitable world is also explained in this monumental work. During medieval period, Arab’s had a comprehensive knowledge of alternating wind system (Mausim) in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. The wisdom was used to take advantage of winds for sailing the ships and boats. The wind system, later on, came to be known as ‘Monsoon Wind System’. Climatology has about 600 year’s history. But it has come into wide spread scientific use for the past about 150 years. An attempt has been made, in this module, to elaborate upon the development and growth of climatology as a science.

Scientific Discoveries Related to Climate Science

Climatology was primarily an observational speculation prior to the scientific age. Gradually, devices for measuring and studying weather were invented and the keeping of systematic weather records began. Climatology, thus, began as the observation and description of weather on sub-continental and continental levels. The early nineteenth century marks the beginning of the scientific discovery of climate when ice ages in paleo-climate were first suspected. The natural greenhouse effect was also identified as an element of climate change. During first and second world war, effects of ground and upper air circulations were recognized. This led to the need for the statistical treatment of weather elements and its predictions. Earth observation through satellites and availability of huge quantum of data led to model the weather conditions and monitor the climate elements both at regional and global levels. Tracking of cyclones and early warnings for the mitigation of effects became possible through regular observations. It is now possible to make very precise prediction of extreme weather phenomenon. People’s trust on climate forecasts for various activities has increased over the years. It is considered to be an important input for initiating any program.

Early Attempts to Understand the Climate

The first scientific attempt in climatology was made by Edmund Halley in 1686 (Figure 1). Halley attempted to map the trade winds. He asserted that there is a relationship between solar heating and atmospheric change. His work introduced the idea of weather and climate systems as interacting systems with the physical features of the Earth. Putting a step forward George Hadley in 1735 postulated that easterly trade winds are caused due to earth’s rotation. It was further added that greater heating from the sun over the equator causes air to rise. Similarly, to balance the ascent of air, there must be an equivalent region of air descent away from tropics. The region is the cause of westerly winds. Hadley’s circulation model, which is now considered the basic part of the climate system, was developed to explain the air motion in and around tropics.

Figure 1: Edmond Halley’s mapping of Trade Winds

Source:https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/evolution-of-climate-science-personal-view-from-julia-slingo

Gaspard-Gustave de Coriolis developed a theory of the effects of rotation in 1835. He explained how objects move within a rotating frame of reference and the forces operating upon them. Because of the rotational force, storms swirl counter clockwise in northern hemisphere and clock wise in southern hemisphere. It is now popularly known as ‘Coriolis Effect’. William Ferrel offered explanation about the global circulation and the westerly wind system that characterize mid-latitude climates in 1856. Ferrel is also credited to have devised a law that winds deflec towards right from normal in northern hemisphere and towards left from normal in southern hemisphere due to earth’s rotation (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Hadley and Ferrel’s Contribution to Cell Formation in Atmospheric Circulation

The role of earth’s rotation in the movement of waves and winds was further improved by Carl GustafRossby who introduced the concept of absolute vorticity and its conservation in adiabatic conditions. The theory of planetary waves was proposed by him. It forms the basis for dynamic climatology and oceanography. In 1837 Louis Agassiz proposed the hypothesis that Europe had experienced past “Ice Ages”.It was based on the discovery of similar glacier features in Scotland. He found scratches on a rocky hill side near Edinburgh like those made by glaciers. He argued that Scotland had recently been covered in a thick ice sheet. Later on some scholars at University of Bristol refuted Louse Agasiz claim of ice age, by saying that it could also be a Wave cut platform and a coastal land feature. There has been a growing awareness that long-term climate observations can lead to the understanding the mechanisms that affect climate change.

The scientific study of patterns of solar energy reaching Earth’s surface due to changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters has a long history. The Earth’s orbital calculations of Milankovitch (1941) led to the astronomical theory (or Milankovitch theory) of climate change and they are well known today. The Serbian astronomer and mathematician who is generally credited with calculating their magnitude particularly variations in the Earth’s eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession comprise the three dominant cycles, collectively known as the Milankovitch Cycles (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Milankovitch Cycles of Climate Change: Eccentricity, Precession and Tilt

John Tyndall demonstrated in the late 1850s, that earth’s atmosphere has greenhouse effect. He explained that GHG were both emitters as well as absorbers of infrared radiation. The fact is vital for understanding the surface energy budget. Svante Arrhenius calculated the influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) on earth’s surface temperature in 1896. He asserted that any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of earth surface by 4 times. Henry Blanford noted in 1875 that order and regularity are the two prominent characteristics of India’s atmospheric phenomena. Sir Gilbert Walker is credited to have identified the Southern Oscillation and its association with failures of the Indian Monsoon in 1904.

It was the early 20th century that the understanding of climatic elements with natural objects became well established. The researches moved beyond observation to the analysis and synthesis. Major impetus for change in climatology in 20th century was World War II. It has demonstrated the advantage of predictive climatology to modern warfare. The system was used to forecast the weather for military operations. The need to understand weather patterns and climates as they related to the possibility of nuclear war and expanding industrial, agricultural, communication and transport technologies. Considering the significance of climatology funding for training, research and education increased significantly.

Based on the principles of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics, VilhelmBjerknes’s worked on mid latitude cyclones. Along with Lewis Fry Rechardson; V. Bjerknes developed a rudimentary three dimensional atmospheric model (Figure 4). It was an equation-based weather prediction model. The complexity of equations and magnitude of calculations involved made it limited to use by a small section of scientists.

Major contributions towards classification of regional and world climates came from H.E. Blanford (1889), W. Koppen (1918, 1931 1936), C.W. Thornthwaite (1931, 1933, 1948), L.D. Stamp and W.G. Kendrew (1953) and G.T. Trewartha (1954). Scholars have placed stress on working out temperature effectiveness, precipitation effectiveness, seasonal deficit and surplus of moisture, water balance and ground water recharge. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) based at Geneva, was established in 1950. WMO is engaged in collecting data globally and sharing its results to meteorological offices operating at regional levels.

The invention and availability of high-speed computers in 1950s made numerical modeling of climate system possible. Later on, launching of resource satellites in 1960s further improved and diversified the data base for monitoring and forecasting of weather elements. New sub disciplines like dynamic meteorology and dynamic climatology have further improved the modeling and monitoring of climate systems.

Figure 4: Norwegian Model of Cyclones by Bjerknes and Solberg 1922

Climatology Pioneers

Several key figures emerged in the academic world whose contributions enhanced the development of climatology as a science. Carl – Gustav Rossby is credited to have established the Department of Meteorology at the University of Chicago in 1942. Researchers at University of Chicago under the leadership of Carl- Gustav Rossby developed the first physical climate model (Figure 5) in which entire planet was conceived to be an integrated physical system.

Figure 5: Planetary Flow Patterns in the Atmosphere by Rossby Waves

Reid Bryson, a World War II military meteorologist left the Department of Geography at University of Wisconsin, Madison to develop a separate Department of Meteorology there. A Center of Climate Research was established in 1962 at Madison. Edward N. Lorenz, another military meteorologist of World War II, worked with Massachusetts Institute of Technology, developed a Chaos Theory to the atmosphere in 1960s, and theories were integrated into the increasingly complex atmospheric modeling relegated to computers. One skeptic claim is that if weather is chaotic, then surely the climate must also be chaotic (Figure 6). A major concern was that for small changes in starting conditions, the system takes a cyclic turn. Beside cyclic turn, it keeps on increasing the intensity and complexity of elements overtime. As such, any chaotic development has to be studied as complex function with increasing intensity in cyclic manner. It has a multiplier and cumulative causation effect ranging over a long period of time from a small chaos to a complex chaos. Weather Bureau of United States viewed climatology as an effective tool for weather prediction and forecasting.

Figure 6: Chaos Theory of Climate Change by Edward N. Lorenz

Meteorology and Climatology as Academic Disciplines

The development of physics and geophysics of the earth and its environment provided further impetus to the growth of meteorology and climatology. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) were established in 1919. Disciplines such as geology, meteorology, climatology, oceanography, seismology, and terrestrial magnetism formed the basis of geophysics. The adverse impacts of World War II demonstrated the need for the collaborative research across scientific disciplines including climatology. This led to establish US Air force’s Cambridge Research Center, Geophysics Research Directorate and US Air force Cambridge Research Laboratories in 1946.

Interdisciplinary research was further boosted in 1957-58 when International Geophysical Year encouraged interdisciplinary collaboration on subjects such as climatology. Manabe and Wetherald (1967) developed one dimensional single column model of the atmosphere. It was based on radiative-convective equilibrium with positive feedback effect of water vapor.Using the model, they found that, in response to the change in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, temperature increases at the Earth’s surface and in the troposphere. However, temperature decreases in stratosphere. The development of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 1970 recognized the integration of oceanographic and meteorological studies. A growing need was felt for the study of climate in an interdisciplinary manner. Similarly, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) developed orbiting satellites to enhance interdisciplinary studies by creating an Earth System Science.

Interdisciplinary Collaboration

Stepping forward an interdisciplinary international journal on ‘Climate Change’ was started in 1977. The culminating fragmented knowledge further strengthened collaboration among similar fields. This has helped in augmenting the growth of climatology as a scientific discipline. Interrelatedness of the themes of research became obvious by mid of 1970s. The synthesis of climatology, meteorology, mathematics, computer science, geophysics, chemistry, biology and other relevant sciences evolved into an all-encompassing discipline under the fabric of Earth Sciences.

System-based Analysis

The emphasis on systems research and interdisciplinary collaboration augmented by advances in computer technology further expanded the scope of climatology. From a restrictive statistically-based descriptive applied climatology, to include a physical-mathematical modeling discipline with predictive global capability. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) was founded in 1986. It is based at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The program seeks to bring international interdisciplinary cooperation to the study of global environment.

The old concept of a ‘static climatic conditions’ proved wrong with recent researches. It is now well established that the climate is a dynamic and always changing. During the 1960s, J. Murray Mitchel, a climatologist with various federal agencies and then with NOAA, asserted that human actions influence the climate both ways positively as well as negatively. It was argued that the negative human influence was apparent and more pronounced. Results of the tests were proven to be statistically significant. Similar such advanced researches paved way to the concept of ‘Global warming’. Mitchel was initially unclear if human induced atmospheric pollution, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) might lead to drastic global warming or cooling. However, it was clear to him that pollution was radically affecting the global climate. Technological and sociological interventions are, therefore, essential to avert a disaster. By mid 1970s, Mitchel and other scientists became convinced that real danger was global warning, and not global warming.

Earth Observation

The earth observation from orbiting satellites made it possible to critically observe and analyze the patterns of weather phenomena in different parts of the earth. The first images from weather satellites were used to explain the cloud cover and resultant weather conditions. By 1980s the first direct measurements of the earth’s radiation budget were made. Over the subsequent decades, the development of geostationary and polar satellites provided rich database for processing, interpreting, modeling and monitoring of the climate systems. It is now possible to define the global flow of energy with the help of climate system. Due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), excess heat accumulated in the tropics is transported towards poles by atmosphere in the weather system. The earth’s energy cycle experiences phase changes of water from evaporation and evapotranspiration from the ground to condensation and precipitation in the atmosphere. The unique quality of earth’s climate is to experience water in all the three states i.e. solid, liquid and gas. As a consequence, heat released at one location can easily be transported and supplemented far away from its original source.

Global Warming Debate: History of Climate Change Science

The history of climatology was dominated by the global warming debate during the last 30 years of the 20th century. The beginning of 21 st century in climatology was dominated by computer modeling. By the assumption that proper way to understand global warming as well as regional climates and weather patterns was by understanding the climate system of the whole planet. Researches at global level could provide scientific reasoning for about possible causes of climate change. Early contributions, to what is now known as climate change science, can be found inImbrie and Imbrie (1979), Weart (2003) and the IPCC AR4 Working Group 1 Report. Spencer Weart has compiled a comprehensive history of climate change science. John Mason dealt with the history of climate science. One of his illustrations (Figure 7) is explained below:

Figure 7: History of Climate Change Science

Meteorology and Climatology as Academic Disciplines

Interdisciplinary Collaboration

System-based Analysis

Earth Observation

Global Warming Debate: History of Climate Change Science

Figure 7: History of Climate Change Science

Publications Devoted to Climatology

The publications such as books, research articles related to climatology have been analyzed to trace the historical contexts of the subject. The first book to use the term climate was written by Williams in 1806. The book was entitled as ‘Climate of Great Britain’ and it discussed the general weather conditions in Great Britain. Special emphasis was laid on wind velocity and direction, evaporation and precipitation patterns.

A scientific work on the ‘Climate of London’ was later on published by Luke Howard in 1818-1819. Similarly, another scientific work on the ‘Climatology of United States’ was published by Blodgett in 1857. Understanding the similar need, Hann (1883) also published a ‘Text Book of Climatology’ in Austria. It was closely followed by Voieikov (1884) in Russia to attempt a publication of book on ‘Climatology’.

A major departure in the writings on climatology appeared in 1922 when Kendrew published his seminal work on ‘The Climates of the Continents’. Similar attempts were also made by Koppen (1923) and Koppen and Geiger (1930) in Germany. Landsberg (1969-1995) edited a seminal work on ‘World Survey of Climatology’ in 16 volumes.

The writings on the branches of climatology began with the Sellers book on ‘Physical Climatology in 1965. Similarly, Barry and Parry attempted to write a text book on ‘Synoptic Climatology’ in 1973. Over a period of time, Barry and Carleton wrote on ‘Synoptic and Dynamic Climatology’ in 2001.

Publication of research journals in climatology has a more recent history of about four decades from now. The first journal on ‘Climate Change’ was published in 1977 and it was edited by Stephen Schneider. Later on, S. Gregory, in United Kingdom, launched an international ‘Journal of Climatology’ in 1981. Adding another wing to climate research, American Meteorological Society started publication of ‘Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology’ in 1983.The publication of a research journal on ‘Climate Dynamics’ was initiated by Springer in 1986.

For the publication of research papers in climatology ‘Journal of Climatology’ was started in 1988. The volume entitled ‘Climate Research’ was launched by Inter-Research Science Center in1990. Michael Padi published an article on ‘Thunderstorms over Southern Ghana’ in March 2017. Similar contributions were made by Frazier, Hemingway and Brasher. Scholars wrote on ‘Land Surface heterogeneity and Tornado Formation: A Comparison of Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley’. Abdulkadir published an article on, ‘Assessment of Drought Recurrence in Somaliland: Causes, Impacts and Mitigations’. Pejaman, et.al, worked on ‘A Laboratory Study of the Role of Turbulence in Growth of Cloud Droplets in Presence of Aerosol Environment. Kobayashi and Ikeda contributed an article on ‘Relationship between Public Health and Climate in Japan’. These seminal articles appeared in the recent issue of ‘Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting’.

Summary and Conclusions

The foregoing discussion on the history of climatology as a scientific discipline reveals that early humans had speculative assessment of climatic conditions which they used for their sustenance and survival. The Greek scholar Aristotle is considered to be the pioneer in initiating scientific writing. Aristotle’s ‘Meteorologica’ is considered to be the oldest record of meteorological and climate elements. However, record of scientific writing on climatology started only in the last 150 years that the term climatology got popularity among scientific disciplines. Climatology began to take shape as elaborated in the first textbooks in German and Russian.Over the last half-century climatology has evolved from the study of climatic means to the study of the global climate systems encompassing the oceans, land use and land cover, soils and manmade features. Logical thinking and scientific deductions became significant by this time. Ground based observations about weather and climate on scientific tools began to be used for explaining elements of weather and climate. Climatic conditions were discussed and debated. Attempts to map trade winds by Halley and explanation about the effects of earth’s rotation offered by Hadley were meaningful achievements during this period. Analysis of planetary wind circulation and its cellular model were the results of the works of Hadley, Ferrel and Rossby in 19th century. Louis Agassiz’s discovery about Ice age in Europe was yet another scientific achievement related to climate change. Significant advances in climatology were initiated during 20th century. Concerted efforts were made to identify the climatic conditions and attempt a scientific classification of climates by Koppen, Thornthwaite, Trewartha and Stamp.

The experiences of world wars particularly the second (1939-45)provided a much needed scientific basis for working out models and to understand the role of upper air circulations in climate. Researches on Jet streams and ocean-atmosphere interaction have widened the scope of analyzing climatic elements with precise accuracy. Role of computers and remote sensing supported processing of large and varied data sets at various levels. Several expeditions such as MONEX, NOAA, COARE opened a new area of collaborative climate research i.e. ocean atmosphere interactions. The occurrence of ENSO, IOD and similar other situations can be predicted well in advance and necessary steps could be initiated to safeguard the interests of the community.

Launch of weather satellites (both polar as well as geostationary) further revolutionized researches with huge data base and its hyper spectral resolutions. Application of GPS and GIS in climatology has further improved the mapping and modeling of complex variables. Meteorological departments at regional and global levels are now coordinating climatic researches. WMO and IPCC have made significant advances in creating awareness about global warming and climate change. It is now possible to develop climate models to explain the extreme weather conditions and incidence of climate change.Tracking the course of cyclones and issuing alarm and advance warnings to the people in affected areas and mitigating the effects of hazards are some of the achievements of the researches in climate systems.

Considering the growing significance and social relevance of climate, there has been publications of books, magazines and research journals related to climatology. Scientists across the world are sharing their researches and experiences in conferences. Publication of research articles related to climate has increased many times. Climate and human health is now occupying a prominent place in applied climatological research. Such a trend is increasing and has a long range impacts on the academic community and their research out puts.

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References

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