13 India-Pakistan Relations

Dr. Suresh Dhanda

Structure of the Module

1. Introduction

2. Objectives

3. Various Stages of Relations

3.1. Partition and Initial Separation

3.2.Strained Relations

3.3. Era of Detente

3.4. Era of Turmoil

3.5. New Beginning but Tragic End

3.5.1. Kargil War and Again Strained Relations

3.5.2. Agra Summit

3.5.3. Operation Prakaram

3.6.New Initiative but Status Quo

4. Conclusion

5. Important Questions

6. Suggested Readings

1. Introduction

India and Pakistan, neighbours to each other, have been in a situation of dispute since a long time. Despite the historical unity, cultural uniformity, geographical proximity and economic interdependence, both have bitter relations to each other rather than friendly relations. Since independence, their relations could not come out of the vicious circle of competition, conflict and war. Their relations marched from conflict to peace and peace to conflict but have been far away from friendship and cooperation. They have been continuously in the situation of cold war and also fought four real wars. The period of detente or good relations have been very limited between the two.

2. Objectives

This module will apprise the readers with the complexities of India-Pakistan relations. Since their independence, both the nations are trapped in the vicious circle of competition, conflict and war. The period of peace between them has been only for temporary phase and full of suspicion and doubts. This module will inquire the reasons responsible for their strained relations. Various stages of their relations have been discussed in this module. All the treaties and agreements signed by both the countries have also been discussed. Through this module, readers will come to know the matters of disputes between them. This module will also highlight the challenges and future prospects of their relations. Important questions and suggested readings have also been provided in the end of the module.

3. Various Stages of Relations

The situation of their relations can be evaluated properly only after the in-depth analysis of their relations since 1947. This analysis can be understood through the changes under five stages which are as follows:- (1) Partition and Initial Separation, 1947-54. (2) Strained Relations, 1955-71. (3) Era of Detente, 1972-79. (4) Era of Turmoil, 1980-98. (5) New Beginning but Tragic End, 1999-2003. (6) New Initiative but Status Quo, 2003 Onwards.

3.1. Partition and Initial Separation

Generally, India and Pakistan should have been friends as both got independence from British Empire at the same time. But this did not happen. During the partition, the process of escaping of Muslims from India to Pakistan and coming of Hindus and Sikhs from Pakistan caused the massacre which led to the feeling of hatred and friction between both the countries.

There were so many important issues related to partition which were still unresolved. The approach, both adopted in the early years to solve these disputes caused the conflict between them rather than friendship. The followings were the main reasons responsible for bitter relations:- (1) Contemporary problems caused by partition. (2) Taking care of minorities. (3) Problem of water distribution of Indus River. (4) Boundary disputes and incidents on boundaries. (5) Dispute regarding the property of displaced. (6) Kashmir dispute.

Four contemporary problems emerged out of partition between India and Pakistan, have been responsible for tension in relations of both in the early years. These disputed issues were— (1) division of boundaries of Punjab and Bengal, (2) division of Army,(3) division of civil services and (4) government property and problem of debts. Though most of these disputes were solved in the some early years but the impact of mutual bitterness during this period is clearly visible on the relations of both. As a result of mutual suspicion, both went on the path of separation rather than cooperation.

The second issue associated with partition was related to the taking care of minorities. 14.5 million Hindus in Pakistan and 40 million Muslims in India became minorities as a result of partition in 1947. Hence, a large number of displaced people from both the sides got settled as refugees in both the countries. According to the census of 1951, there were 74.8 lakhs displaced in India. Among them 40.05 were from West Pakistan. In the same way, 25.75 lakhs came from East Pakistan which increased to 41.16 lakhs in 1957. An agreement was signed by Nehru and Liyakat Ali on 8th April 1950 to solve this problem, as a result, the severity of problem decreased. But this problem persisted even in later years up to some extent.

The main problem associated with partition was regarding the distribution of water of Indus River and its tributaries. There were total seven rivers in this Indus River region in which Indus itself was in West and Kabul and its tributaries (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) were in East. Among them, Jhelum and Chenab, except Kabul, flow mainly through Pakistan and carry almost 80% of water in the Indus region. On the other side, Ravi and Sutlej mainly and Beas completely flow in India.

The first dispute in this regard erupted on 1st April 1948 when India stopped the water flowing to the Pakistan for not paying the amount of water charges to the Indian province, Punjab. But none of the governments took it as a legal issue and both the government solved it bilaterally through an agreement on 4th May 1948. But the dispute again erupted after some time. Pakistan alleged that India is not giving the water in proper quantity. On the other hand, India alleged that Pakistan is not searching for alternative sources for the development of its province, Punjab. In this context, an American elite specialist, David Lilienthal visited India in 1951. He noted that less than 20% Indus waters is used and rest of the waters of six rivers of this region are wasted or flow into the Arabian Sea. He advised to solve this problem on technical and economic basis, and not on political basis and recommended the mediation of World Bank for this purpose. In this context, World Bank accepted to mediate on 5th February 1954 and presented a detailed plan for this region. The plan was accepted by both the countries after some amendments on 19th September 1960. Hence, this problem was solved in 12 years with the satisfactions of both countries in accordance with the partition due to the visionary leadership and mediation of World Bank.

Boundary dispute has been another important issue caused by partition. In West (except Kashmir Boundary), the boundaries of both were 1503 miles long. In East, the length of boundary was 2481 miles. Hence, a long time was expected to demarcate these boundaries. That’s why, time to time, small incidents often took place for the actual lines of boundaries. The dispute on boundaries, associated with Punjab, was solved through various bilateral summits and agreements (1955, 1958, and 1961). The second problem regarding boundaries was to demarcate the boundaries in the region of Kutch. This boundary of Western Pakistan, associated with the Province of Gujarat, was a marsh land. The matter of dispute erupted by the demand of 3500 square miles of this total region raised by Pakistan in its favour. It couldn’t be solved soon. This matter was solved after the two decades through the UN arbitration on 19th February 1968. Accordingly, the region of 350 square miles was given to Pakistan.

Dispute regarding the property of displaced was another cause of concern for both the countries. A large number of Hindus and Sikhs escaped from Pakistan to India and Muslims from India to Pakistan due to the massacre took place as a result of partition. The citizens of both the countries left behind their homes, property, factories, storages, offices, etc without any security system and became the refugees in other country.

The proper estimate of their property and the proper system to solve this problem became the main cause of dispute between both the countries. According to an estimate, the value of the property left behind by Hindus and Sikhs in West Pakistan was $ 8 billion. But Pakistan was not agreed with this estimation, and always felt that estimation is over exaggerated. Despite various disputes and differences, both the countries took various efforts to solve this problem. Ultimately, these were solved through the agreements of 1950 signed as a result of intensive dialogue taken place between 1947 and 1950. Theoretically, the property disputes were solved, but practically, some of the disputes could be solved permanently up to the mid of 1950s and some other up to 1961-62. In this way, the matters related to both kinds of properties were exactly decided in the early years of the partition, they could be finally resolved after the 10-16 years.

The most important and disputed issue between both the countries is Kashmir, which is still a cause of hatred and detestation between the both. According to Indian Independence Act, the Princely States were free to join either India or Pakistan or to remain independent. Kashmir was a princely state. But ruler of Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh, didn’t take any decision for a long time. During the same period in October 1947, some tribes, sponsored by government of Pakistan, were marching towards Srinagar (capital of Kashmir) to attack the Kashmir. When they occupied most of the territory of the state and were just 35 miles away from the Srinagar, king urged for military assistance from India. He also signed the instrument of accession on 26th October 1950 in this regard. After this accession, India tried to stop the tribal aggression marching towards the Kashmir. But till that, aggressors occupied some of the territory of Kashmir, and appeal by Nehru to Pakistan didn’t prove fruitful, then India presented this dispute on 1st January 1948 to be solved through peaceful methods under article 35 of UN Charter. But it could not be solved even through UN due to the deadlock among both the countries on the issue of interpretation of the decisions given by UN. That’s why UN commission admitted in its interim report submitted on 5th December 1949 that situation of Kashmir has changed. But the passed memorandum is unchangeable. This is the main cause of dispute today. Since then many efforts have been made by both the countries in this direction to solve the dispute but Kashmir dispute has become a permanent hurdle in the improvement of relations of both the countries.

Followings have been the features of their relations in this stage:-

Both lacked cooperative relations. The relations of both have been full of sourness, suspicion and mistrust, and sometimes reached to the point of fight or conflict.

As a result of legacy of partition, both have adopted secularism and religious fanaticism in their internal systems. This process remained limited not only to their internal level but emerged as the determining factors of their foreign policies.

To compensate the deficiencies caused by the above reasons, both have adopted contrary foreign policies.

They became not only antagonists to each other but trapped into the politics of cold war also.

Both were pressurised to spend unnecessarily on defence resources due to the bilateral and international competition.

In this way, it is clear that the beginning of relations of both the countries was not good but was based on the feelings of hatred, as a result of which, both adopted the contrary foreign and domestic policies. Consequently, the gap between the two kept on increasing and there always remained the lack of possibilities of cooperation.

3.2. Strained Relations

The period of Indo-Pak relations from 1955 to 1971 has not only been very sensitive but can also be called the final point of conflict. As a result, both fought two severe wars with each other. The followings were the reasons of development of fissure between the two:-

The first cause of conflicted relations between the two was acquiring of weapons and getting membership of various military organisations by the Pakistan.

The second reason is the policies and approaches of Pakistan towards China. During this period, 5180 square kilometre area of Pak occupied Kashmir was handed over to China by Pakistan through an agreement in 1963.

Indo-Pak war of 1965 was the third main reason of hatred relations between the two. The defeat of India by China in 1962 has been taken as a weakness by Pakistan.

One more reason of tension between the relations of both has been the civil war in Pakistan and India-Soviet friendship.

Beside this, the situation of civil war erupted in East Pakistan due to its internal incidents. The situation was getting explosive day by day. Many times military skirmishes took place on the boundary of East Pakistan in the Month of November 1971. Pakistan directly performed the act of war in western region on 3rd December 1971. Most of the Indian leaders (Prime Minister, Defence Minister, Finance Minister, etc.) were out of Delhi at that time. It clears the fact that India did not initiate the war. India started war on 4th December as a retaliation. Besides, India recognised Bangladesh as an independent nation on 6th December. Consequently, Pakistan terminated its all diplomatic relations with India. Pakistan received defeat in war on eastern boundary and its chief of war General Niazi surrendered on 16th December 1971. With this surrender, India declared one sided voluntary ceasefire in western region. As a result, with the process of formation of Bangladesh, an era of conflicted relations between the both (India and Pakistan) reached to climax.

This war caused the basic changes in India’s foreign policy. These changes were as follows:-

As a result of this war, India’s foreign policy keep on increasing closer to Soviet Union and gaps increased in relations with America.

This war caused the basic change in China’s position. Pak-China-America triangle also declined.

This war established the India’s image at least as a regional power. Simultaneously, it paved the way for India to play a role in world politics.

Whereas India got united and strong internally, Pakistan, on the other side, felt scattered and spoiled.

Kashmir dispute also continued. After the failure from UN, Pakistan tried to solve the issue through ‘other means’. ‘Gibraltar campaign’ of 1965 was the direct form of that but was failed due to the immediate and fast retaliation of Indian soldiers.

In this way, this period of relations between both the countries has been of extreme conflicts along with full of complexities. Bitterness and hatred among both reached at the top in this period. No initiative could be taken to sort out the complex and obstinate issue of Kashmir. The war of 1971 destroyed the all equations and changed the geographical map of Asia.

3.3. Era of Detente

Important changes took place in Indo-Pak relations after the war of 1971. Accordingly, both the countries tried to improve their relations in 1970s on the real grounds. This change in Indian context was its emerging strong position in South Asia. Besides, it was the increase in India’s international credibility and recognition of its strategic capability also. It also demonstrates the Indian diplomacy, particularly, supremacy and competence of its leadership. India stressed on improving the relations as per its long standing policy to the establishment of regional and international peace.

This war brought drastic and important consequences in Pakistan. Accordingly, foreign policy of Pakistan witnessed qualitative changes, which were as follows— (1) after the independence of Bangladesh, it was not necessary for it to support the theory of ‘two nations’ for its existence. (2) Now it started to end the military rule and marched for democratic values. (3) It started to take important bold steps for economic development.

(4) It started to reduce the influence of separatist movements going on in Punjab and Sindh. (5) War related issues, particularly the pressure of releasing the 93000 war prisoners, compelled it to evaluate its foreign relations. Keeping in view the above reasons, it initiated the steps to make friendship with India.

Keeping in view the above changed circumstances, Bhutto took initiative to talk with India. Consequently, Bhutto and Indira Gandhi signed ‘Shimla Agreement’ on 3rd July 1972, through which a new chapter began between both the countries. Followings were the main features of this agreement:-

Both agreed not to threaten or use weapons against each other’s regional integrity and political freedom.

Both agreed that they will solve their mutual disputes through peaceful means and bilateral dialogue.

To improve their mutual relations both countries will— (i) establish postal, telegram, air, sea and land relations; (ii) provide travelling facilities to passengers; (iii) establish economic and trade relations; and (iv) develop scientific and economic transactions.

Both countries will call their forces back to international boundary within 30 days. Here, boundary means line of control at the time of ceasefire on 17th December 1971.

The matter of freedom of prisoners of war couldn’t be solved even after this important agreement because India wanted to solve it with the consent of Bangladesh. Pakistan granted its recognition to Bangladesh on 22nd February 1974. This recognition removed a hurdle of returning the prisoners of war. That’s why consent was formed under an agreement on return of prisoners of war during a trilateral Delhi meeting between the ministers of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on 9th April 1974. Beside this, through one another agreement, the citizens of both the countries captivated in the jails of India and Pakistan were also released. After some time, other agreements on trade and mutual transactions were also signed in 1974 and 1975. But a situation of tension again has blown up between the both when India did its Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE) at Pokhran on 18th May 1974. But both countries did not leave the process of mutual cooperation. Both countries signed various trade and non-trade agreements in 1976 to increase the cooperation. Beside this, ambassadors were again sent to each other’s country under the agreement of 14th May 1976 after the gap of 5 years. India’s foreign minister visited Pakistan on 6th February1978 and signed some important agreements.

Salal Electricity Project signed on 14th April 1979 during the visit of Pakistani representatives was very important in this regard. Hence, the period of 1972-79 has been the period of detente in the relations of both the countries.

3.4. Era of Turmoil

The period of 1980 to 1991 has been of turmoil in relations of both the countries. The interference of Soviet Union in Afghanistan not only ignited the era of new cold war but also caused the birth of new equations in the relations of South Asian nations (India and Pakistan). The relations of both got tense again. Followings were the reasons responsible for bitter relations of both the countries in this changed internal and international environment: – (1) India did not oppose openly the intervention of Soviet Union in Afghanistan. On the other side, the relations of Pakistan and America continued to grow. (2) Increased military expenditure and weapons by both the countries. (3) Acquiring the nuclear capability by both the countries has also been a cause of discord between the two in this decade. (4) Another issue associated with the nuclear capability has been the acquisition of missiles by both. (5) The dispute of Siachin Glacier has also been an important reason of tension between the two. (6) India and Pakistan also have differences on the role of superpowers in Indian Ocean. However, both support the UN declaration of 1971 on ‘Indian Ocean Peace Zone’ but Pakistan does not oppose the establishment of military bases by America in this region. Contrary to this, India is against to any kind of military activity in this region. (7) Pakistani support to terrorists in Punjab and Kashmir has also been an important reason of differences between the two. (8) In 1987, the issue of dispute between the two was the annual military exercise conducted by both the countries. ‘Brasstacks’ exercise caused the tension to Pakistan and ‘Zarb-e Momin’ to India. Keeping in view the preparations of Brasstacks, some scholars termed it as ‘fourth war’.

Due to above reasons, the gaps instead of closeness, increased between both the countries in this decade. Beside this, Kashmir issue was also raised by Pakistan at international fore time to time. But it doesn’t mean that both were inspired for war. Time to time, some efforts were made to develop the confidence between the two. The followings were the ‘confidence building measures’ on which both the countries agreed in this period:- (1) Both countries agreed in December 1988 not to attack on nuclear installations of each other. (2) Both countries agreed on 6th April 1991 to provide prior information about their military exercises to be conducted. (3) Both countries agreed to establish hotlines between the Director Generals of their countries responsible to military action and to stop the encounters on the basis of wrong estimation. (4) Both countries agreed on 6th April 1991 to let the military aircrafts of each other to travel on special air routes. They also agreed in August 1992 to let military aircrafts of each other to take off and travel. (5) Both countries agreed on the ban of using the chemical weapons during war.

Beside this, there were some other issues also on which the dialogue continued but couldn’t be culminated into agreement. In this way, some progress is visible towards increasing the trust between both the countries. However, beside the above military and non-military confidence building measures, some economic commissions were also formed through which the list of commodities for import and export between the two was finalised.

An important turning point in the relations of this decade is the post-cold war era. India and Pakistan have also to go through this phase of change. These changes caused to emerge some positive aspects through which a hope came into sight to improve the relations of India and Pakistan. Even after the positive elements caused by end of cold war, relations of India and Pakistan have not changed expectedly. But the elements to produce different attitudes among the both remained present. These were:-

The terrorism does not end in the Kashmir state of India even after the end of the cold war. Along with some internal reasons, the support from Pakistan is the main cause of that.

Both the nations still not quitted their old policies of hatred. This exercise was not limited to the border skirmishes only but it did not spare even the privileged diplomats.

The tension again cropped up when supporter of Hinduism demolished the 15th century Babari Mosque on 6th December 1992 in Ayodhya. Pakistan criticised the Indian government for this incident and demolished many temples as reaction in Pakistan.

After that, a serious incident happened in Bombay which widened the gap between the both. On 12th March 1993, the Bombay was terrorised with serial bomb blasts which caused immense casualties. India sees Pakistani hand behind these blasts.

One more reason for the development of bitter relations between the two was the acquisition of weapons by Pakistan. Arms race between the two is natural when Pakistan is getting the modern weapons.

Five nuclear tests by India under Pokhran-II on 11th and 13th May 1998 and nuclear tests by Pakistan in Chhagai on 30th May 1998 witnessed a new turn in the relations of both the countries. Acquisition of nuclear power status by both the countries encouraged the nuclear proliferation and nuclear arms race in South Asia. Simultaneously, as a result of this process, a positive change was also witnessed in their relations. This positive change can be called a new beginning in their relations. After the tests of 1998, both the countries initiated the talks with each other but no concrete result came out. Both the Prime Ministers talked in Colombo during the SAARC Summit in July 1998. After that, foreign ministers of both the countries talked in Durban (South Africa) during the 12th summit of NAM Countries in September 1998. But in the same month, the positive results came out of the talks between both the Prime Ministers during a conference of UN General Assembly. Agenda of talks was consented on ‘2+6’ by both the countries in this meeting. On the basis of this, out of eight most disputed issues except two (Kashmir and peace & security), six were separated. The benefit of this agenda was that dissent on any one of the issues will not affect the other issues. Beside this, possibility of consent on the other issues will be open being the complex issues of Kashmir and peace & security present. During the same talks, consent on ‘bus service’ between both the countries was also made. As a result of this agenda, a detailed discussion was held in November 1998 between the high powered representatives of both the countries on the six main issues of dispute—Siachen; Sir Creek; Tulbul Wullar barrage; terrorism; and smuggling of drugs; economic and communication cooperation; and cultural exchange.

3.5. New Beginning but Tragic End

Prime Minister Vajpayee’s Lahore visit by bus on 20th February 1999 added a new dimension in the relations of both countries. Followings were the reasons responsible for this changing diplomacy between both the countries:-

Regarding talks on nuclear non-proliferation, India was reduced to a peripheral nation. Hence, it wanted to express its nuclear non-proliferation policy in a more clear way through new efforts.

More and more pressure was increasing on both the countries to sign Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (C.T.B.T.).

On becoming the nuclear power states after the tests of May 1998 it was necessary for both to control their nuclear capability. Hence, ‘confidence building measures’ were necessary for both.

The pressure of America was also increasing on both countries after nuclear tests. The visit of American Deputy Secretary of State, Strobe Talbot, to both the countries was seen in this context.

Internal situation of both the countries was also responsible for this up to some extent.

Above all pressures were temporary but it was a tough challenge for both countries to strengthen their economy in post-cold war period. As a result, change in their relations was essential. The process of nuclear tests has fastened it and it developed rapidly. Three main documents—- (1) memorandum of understanding; (2) joint statement; and (3) Lahore declaration were signed during the two-day visit of Prime Minister Vajpayee to Pakistan. As a result of which, the consent was expressed on the following issues:-

On the bases of ‘memorandum of understanding’ signed by foreign secretaries, consent was expressed basically on three issues —– (i) both the countries will take initiatives for confidence building measures to stop the nuclear confrontation for security purpose; (ii) both will provide prior information to each other before testing the missiles to stop the sudden and unauthorized use of nuclear weapons; and (iii) both will try to impose self restrictions on their own nuclear tests.

Both Prime Ministers expressed consent on the followings in their joint statements—- (i) both will cooperate each other in the activities of SAARC; (ii) both will cooperate each other in World Trade Organisation (WTO); (iii) both will increase cooperation in the field of information technology, particularly about ‘Y2K’; and (iv) both will take necessary steps for the liberation of war prisoners.

Both countries declared important principles to increase mutual cooperation under ‘Lahore Declaration’. On the bases of it, both countries-— (i) will increase mutual peace and stability and will work for the development and prosperity of people; (ii) agree that permanent peace and good relations are necessary for the future of people of both the countries; (iii) agree that in the field of security, the nuclear dimension has increased their responsibility more; (iv) are in favour of UN charter and peaceful co-existence; and (v) repeated their commitment to Shimla agreement.

The visit by Vajpayee was not important symbolically only but it can be considered as a new beginning between both the countries. Followings were the outcomes of this visit regarding the relations of both the countries: – (1) this visit developed the level of dialogue between the both. Now both the countries will be able to talk on three levels—Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and senior government officials along with the dialogue on political levels. (2) The agenda was decided very comprehensively. Hence, both are becoming capable for having integrated and composite dialogue on the issues like security, nuclear deterrence, disarmament, W.T.O., information technology, etc. (3) Due to the scope of trade dialogue, now both can advance the process of improving the relations by selecting some of the subjects through mutual consent. (4) Mutual trust will increase through dialogue between the both. (5) Both demonstrated the positive attitude by accepting the weaknesses and faults openly which will be helpful in dialogue. (6) Both have denied the possibilities of external interference by demonstrating the faith in Shimla agreement. (7) External powers have received a signal through this initiative of both the countries that they are capable of solving their disputes mutually. Hence, these efforts by both will provide a base for cordial relations by improving their relations.

3.5.1. Kargil War and Again Strained Relations

Before the results of Lahore declaration come, Pakistan turned the mutual relations again in hatred by opening the Kargil war on India. This war terminated the three months old peace process. ‘Lahore sentiment’ and ‘bus diplomacy’ died due to this. This proved another Siachen between the two. In many respects, this war was equal to the wars of 1947 and 1971. This incident certified the conception about these countries that conflict leads to peace and then to conflict again, but not cooperation between these both counties. India started ‘Operation Vijay’ on 25-26 July 1999 to tackle with this problem and after a huge loss of life and property; India successfully forced the Pakistan to vacate its regions situated at Line of Control. According to a government release, 461 soldiers from military and 5 from Air Force died, 683 injured and 2 were missing till formal ceasefire i.e. 26th July, but nongovernmental data claims for more than that. In this way, these incidents remain continued for many months at low level even after the declaration of ceasefire at official level. Regarding this war, the weaknesses of India in three fields came up openly—- (1) failure of Indian intelligence, (2) weaknesses of strategic actions, and (3) blindness of political leadership. Somehow, war has affected the relations of both the countries in a broad way. Among them main points are as follows:-

The illusion washed away that through this war the nuclear capability will play the role of prevention.

The long term impacts of Lahore sentiment finished. It means the Lahore sentiment got terminated.

The serious danger of extremism established in the near neighbourhood.

Through the coordination of Mujahidin, Taliban and many Islamic organisations by Pakistan, this crisis, being limited not to the boundaries of both countries only, became the most serious by associating itself with Western and Central Asian Republics.

Now the possibilities of internationalization of Indo-Pak disputes and outside interference in this region increased.

This war caused an end to all the initiatives to increase confidence building measures established in Indo-Pak relations from last some years.

3.5.2. Agra Summit

In 2001, due to many reasons, the round of talks started again between both the countries from the ‘Agra Summit’ on 14-16 July 2001. But due to the adamant attitude of both the countries on their issues made this summit totally failure and the process of talks between the two blocked. Followings were the main reasons of this failure:-

No preparation of structure for talks by both the countries. They didn’t reach on consent on any kind of agenda before the talks.

Stress of Mushraff on Kashmir as a ‘central point’ of talks in the whole episode.

Not following the diplomatic protocol by Musharraf.

Invitation to the leaders of Hurriat, a banned organisation in Kashmir, for tea by High Commission of Pakistan at Delhi residence after coming to India. Beside this, inviting the journalist for breakfast and organising a press conference without the approval of host.

Incorrect statement by Indian minister of Information and Broadcasting. No formal send-off to Musharraf by Indian political leadership.

Consequently, both countries neither signed any agreement nor they reached consent on joint declaration. Prime Minister told the parliament in this regard that joint press statement could not be issued due to the contrary views of both the countries. India wanted to include two things in this joint statement—– (1) document for structure of talks in future and (2) mention of provisions related to peace and security. India was in favour of presenting all these things in a comprehensive dialogue. But Pakistan wanted to put the solution of Jammu and Kashmir as a pre-condition. Beside this, cross border terrorism was not an issue in the opinion of Pakistan. Though this summit was a complete failure, yet the then government saw it as the beginning of initiative for talks.

3.5.3. Operation Prakram

After that, Indian parliament was attacked on 13th December 2001 by the terrorists of Pakistan based two important terrorist organisations Lashkar-e-Tayaba and Jaish-e-Muhammad. Keeping in view the seriousness of this attack, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee declared the final war (Aar Paar Ki Ladai). Home minister Lal Krishan Adwani also termed it an effort to wipe out the whole political leadership of India. First of all, after this attack India used non military alternatives. Chief among them were—- termination of railway and bus service; calling back the Indian High Commissioner; reducing the number of employees in Indian High Commission; blocking the international airway, etc. The work on landmines started on line of control so that war preparedness may be made on international boundaries. Air Force was put on alert and the navy was also ordered to be deputed. The objective in the first stage of this kind of process was to attack the training camps in Pakistan. But later on, the attitude of Home Minister, Advani, seemed soft during his speech in the parliament on 18th December 2001. In this way, India started its ‘Operation Prakram’ in December 2001 with the deputation of forces on the border. This operation was an example of retaliated diplomacy by India against Pakistan. Initially, there was an idea to attack the terrorist training camps across the border but India did not go for war even after the fixation of dates twice (5-6 January and 15 June) for starting the war. This programme was more a ‘political diplomatic’ activity through which it was to accept the efforts taken by international community in this direction along with mounting the pressure on Pakistani government. As far as question of impact of this programme was concerned, no special influence was seen on Pakistan. Pakistan tested three missiles within four days in May 2002 perhaps only for this reason. In this way, the operation prakram of India failed without any results.

3.6. A New Initiative but Status Quo

Vajpayee took a new initiative on 18th April 2003 during his Srinagar visit by extending the ‘Hand of Friendship’ towards Pakistan. Beside this, parliamentary delegations of both countries also visited to each other at the level of track-II diplomacy to develop the relations among the people. Under this initiative, both the countries declared many steps to increase the confidence building measures to each other, and some steps were also taken actually in this regard. For example, both the countries declared the names of high commissioners to be appointed in each other’s country; decision to run Lahore bus from 1st July 2003 was taken; consent was formed on exemption to use international air route and to open the rail line; beside the Indian fishermen captivated in Pakistani jails, 20 Sikh youths and 14 employees of cargo ship were also released; efforts were taken to exchange the sports; and the consent was made to maintain the number of employees of High Commissions as much as prior to December 2001.

In the coming time, both the countries reached on consent to take steps to increase both strategic and non strategic confidence. On the bases of these, some positive decisions or rounds of talks began on ceasefire and military communication, nuclear missiles management, solution of disputed issues, economic issues, people to people contact, disaster management and means of control on terrorism etc. But the terrorist incident of Bombay (26/11) on 26th November 2008 derailed the relations of both countries again. Mutual trust between the both again died for not stopping the terrorist activities by Pakistan and for not handing over the culprits associated with this crime to India or not punishing them on their own.

Further, India and Pakistan signed a new visa agreement in September 2012 during the visit of then External Affairs Minister to Pakistan. This agreement has led to liberalization of bilateral visa regime. Two rounds of the resumed dialogue have been completed; the third round began in September 2012, when the Commerce Secretaries met in Islamabad. Talks on conventional and non-conventional CBMs were held in the third round in December 2012 in New Delhi. A meeting of the Working Group on Cross-LoC (Line of Control) trade and travel CBMs was held in New Delhi on March 4, 2014 in which issues including strengthening of standard operating procedures were discussed. In August 2012, India announced reduction of 30% in its SAFTA Sensitive List for non-Least Developed Countries, bringing down tariff on 264 items to 5% within a period of three years. This measure benefited Pakistan’s exports to India in sectors of key interest to Pakistan. In their meeting in New Delhi on January 18, 2014, Commerce Ministers of India and Pakistan reaffirmed the commitment to expedite establishment of normal trading relations, and in this context, to provide Non-Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA), on a reciprocal basis. They decided to intensify and accelerate the process of trade normalisation, liberalization and facilitation and to implement the agreed measures before the end of February 2014. Further, talks were held in Delhi on March 5, 2014 on trade in power, and on April 1, 2014 on cooperation in gas and petroleum sector.

The second and third meetings of Joint Business Council were held in New Delhi and Lahore, respectively in October 2013 and February 2014 for cooperation in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and healthcare. In May 2014, Pak PM Shariff was invited to Modi’s swearing-in ceremony as PM but the dialogue process was hit after the Pakistani high commissioner meets Hurriyat leaders ahead of talks. Again the scheduled talks between National Security Advisors of both the countries to be held on 23-24 August 2015 in New Delhi were cancelled due to the same reason.

4. Conclusion

Hence, even after these positive steps, cross border terrorism between the both is an important issue. Killing of innocent people is continued in Kashmir. It is essential to remove the root structure of terrorism. But Pakistan still has a gap between its speech and action. Pakistan’s policy of considering the Kashmir issue as its ‘central’ issue still has not changed. Nature of relations between both the countries in future will depend on the role of following factors:-

Establishment of democracy and internal stability in Pakistan can boost up the good relations between the both.

Howsoever both the countries deny the mediation of a third country but both get influenced with the role of America in this region.

At present, the role of economic factors can bring the change in their relations. Consent between both the countries on direction for comprehensive efforts on Kashmir and other disputes.

Again recognition to ‘Shimla’ and ‘Lahore’ arrangements and taking the steps accordingly.

Though at present, both have complex differences, and activities of regional and international politics influence them up to a great extent. Solution is not easy. If the round of talks begins, some progress will definitely happen but how much improvement will be there in relations? Only time will tell.

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Suggested Readings

a) Books/Articles

Alka Jauhari, “India-Pakistan Relations: International Implications”, Asian Social Science, 9.1, 2013, PP. 42-51.
Amitabh Matto & Happymoon Jacob, Shaping India’s Foreign Policy, New Delhi, Har-Anand, 2010.
C.Raja Mohan, Crossing the Rubicon: The Shaping of India’s Foreign Policy, New Delhi, Penguin/Viking, 1993.
Ira Yadav, India and Pakistan: Path Towards the 21st Century, New Delhi, Gaurav, 2015.
J.N. Dixit, India-Pakistan in War and Peace, Taylor and Francis, 2003.
Kanti Bajpai & Harsh Pant, eds., India’s Foreign Policy: A Reader, New Delhi, Oxford, 2013.
Lalit Mansingh, et al, eds., Indian Foreign Policy: Agenda for the 21st Century, New Delhi, Konark, 1998. ( 2 Vols.).
Muchkund Dubey, India’s Foreign policy: Coping With The Changing World, New Delhi, Pearson, 2012.
Mushtaq Ahmad Mir, “India-Pakistan: The History of Unresolved Conflicts”, Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 4, April 2014, pp.101-10.
Muzaffar H. Syed, Indo-Pak Relations, New Delhi, Pragun Publications, 2012.
R.S.Yadav & Suresh Dhanda, eds., India’s Foreign Policy: Contemporary Trends, New Delhi, Shipra, 2009.
R.S.Yadav, Bharat Ki Videsh Niti, New Delhi, Pearson, 2013.
Rajiv Sikri, Challenges and Strategy: Rethinking India’s Foreign policy, New Delhi, Sage, 2014.
Rajkumar Singh, India and Pakistan: Social, Political and Military Perspectives, New Delhi, Neha, 2009.
Ramesh Thakur, Politics and Economics of India’s Foreign Policy, New Delhi, Oxford, 1994.
Stephan Cohen, India: Emerging Power, Washington, D.C., Brookings, 1993.
Stephanie Flamenbaun and Megan Nevilla, “Optimism and Obstacles in India-Pakistan Peace Talks”, Peace Brief, July 15, 2011.
Sumit Ganguly, Conflict Unending: India-Pakistan Tensions since 1947, Woodrow Wilson Centre, 2002.
Sumit Ganguly, ed., India’s Foreign Policy: Retrospect and Prospect, New Delhi, Oxford, 2010.
Suresh Dhanda, Nuclear Politics in South Asia, New Delhi, Regal, 2010.
Suresh Dhanda, “Nuclear Weapon Programmes of India and Pakistan: A comparative Assessment” South Asian Survey, Vol.17, No.2, September, 2010, pp.255-82.
V.P.Dutt, India’s Foreign Policy in a Changing World, New Delhi, 1999.

b) Web links:-