32 UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Role of IPCC and Subsequent Developments

Manoj Kumar Sharma

UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Role of IPCC and Subsequent Developments

Climate change induced by anthropogenic causes is a global concern and is likely to affect all nations of the world including developed and developing nations. Some countries are particularly vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change including countries with low lying coastal zones which are likely to be affected by increased sea level caused by global warming. World leaders recognized that if human activities are not controlled, the adverse effects on climate change would be irreversible and would be detrimental to human survival and ecosystems.

Having acknowledged that human activities have caused the emission of Greenhouse gases whose concentration in the atmosphere is perpetrating climate change, the global community initiated negotiations for international instruments and for establishing institutions for dealing with, preventing, mitigating and adapting to climate change. Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) led the way from the front. It led to enactment of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which is a major step in this direction which provided an impetus to developing instruments and institutions for dealing with climate change. Adoption of UNFCCC led to enactment of Kyoto Protocol which spelt out the specific targets for reduction of emission of GHG. Paris Agreement is another step in this direction.

Learning Outcomes

The aim of the paper is to discuss and analyze the provisions and responsibilities under UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. The paper will also discuss the role of IPCC in climate change negotiations and its role in assessing the impact of policies and measures adopted to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The paper will be discussed under the following rubrics:

• UNFCCC
• Role of IPCC
• Kyoto Protocol – First and Second Commitment Period
• Paris Agreement

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

UNFCCC is an intergovernmental treaty which was negotiated between February 1991 to May 1992 and was finally adopted for the purpose of dealing with climate change caused by anthropogenic reasons. The Convention provides a framework for dealing with Climate Change. It initiated global efforts to recognize and acknowledge that human activities are causing changes in climate which are adverse to humans and ecosystems. The Convention provided for the adoption of further Protocols and agreements under the Framework of the Convention to deal with the issue of climate change more effectively and efficiently.

As stated at the outset, the Convention acknowledges that human activities were causing changes in the global climate. This was recognized and acknowledged at a time when there was not much certainty and clarity in scientific knowledge about climate change. However, the global leaders went ahead with the Convention to limit/regulate and control those human activities which were having adverse impacts on the climate. UNFCCC was opened for signature in Rio Earth Summit in June 1992 i.e. in United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) and it entered into force on 21st March 1994. The Convention has been ratified by 197 countries.

The Convention defines climate change to mean such changes in climate, caused directly or indirectly by human activities, which change the composition of global atmosphere. As per the Convention, the change induced by anthropogenic causes must be in addition to natural changes.

Objectives of UNFCCC

Article 2 of the Convention outlines the objectives of the Convention. These include:

• Stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent interference with the climate and to ensure the achievement of this goal in a time bound manner
• To ensure that food production is not affected by climate change
• To ensure sustainable economic development

UNFCCC is based on an important international environmental law doctrine of Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities’. The doctrine takes into consideration the fact that the climate is the common responsibility of all nations, however, the greater burden should be on those nations which have so far contributed to climate change i.e. developed nations whose rampant emission of GHG have perpetrated and accelerated climate change. Therefore, the doctrine recognized that the financial responsibility should be cast on the developed nations to help the developing nations to prevent climate change and at the same time ensuring that the needs of developing nations regarding economic development are not severally compromised because each country has sovereign right to exploit its resources leading to its development. Therefore, it is the common responsibility of all nations to reduce the emission of GHG but at the same time it recognizes special needs of developing and least developed countries (LDC) to develop and therefore, it is recognized that their level of emission of GHG is likely to increase yet and they are also likely to cause damage to environment and contribute to climate change. The onus is cast on Developed countries which are detailed in Annex A to reduce emission of GHG and also to help developing countries in containing GHG by technology transfer and financial support.

UNFCCC is based on principle of Sustainable Development and calls for taking steps to mitigate and adapt to climate change based on precautionary measures despite the lack of certainty in scientific data. The Convention calls for taking measures consistently with the needs of developing and LDC

Obligations and Commitments under the Convention

The Convention binds the developed countries and economies in transition to market economy (European countries, erstwhile socialist countries) i.e. Annex I countries to prepare national inventory of GHG emissions on an annual basis within six months of the entering into force of the Convention and thereafter periodically. The Convention also mandates annex I parties to enact national policies for mitigation of climate change by limiting the emission of GHG to the base year level i.e. 1990 levels and by enhancing and preserving sinks of GHG i.e. forests and oceans. Therefore, the parties are required to report GHG emission of the base year and the emissions for subsequent periods on periodical basis. The parties are also required to submit information on policies and measures taken to control the emission and the effect of those measures on the climate. The information submitted by the parties is reviewed by the Conference of Parties (COP).

Convention mandates the developed parties to provide financial resources, assistance to developing countries to enable them to meet the cost of implementing their obligations under the Convention. Other obligations of the developed countries are :

• To assist the developing countries particularly those which are vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change
• To provide financial assistance
• To provide support by facilitating technology transfer to developing countries
• To take all steps for promoting and developing technology and for transfer of the same.

Those nations who are not listed in Annex I can also submit their intention to be bound by the commitments under the Convention. All nations who are bound by the Convention are required to

• Prepare national inventory of GHG emission of all GHG not controlled by Montreal Protocol To formulate programmes for mitigation of climate change and to update those plans and programmes on regular basis
• To promote sustainable development
• To promote technology development and transfer to developing and LDC
• To ensure conservation and enhancement of sinks of GHG
• To enable observation of climate change data and to collect and compile the same
• To promote and cooperate in education, training and awareness regarding climate change and adverse effects of climate change.

The Convention established Conference of Parties (COP) as an institution to periodically examine the implementation of the Convention, the measures undertaken, the adequacy of the Convention, need to adopt amendments and Protocols. The COP oversees the institutional arrangement and the compliance with the obligations by the parties. It facilitates information exchange on the measures taken by the parties and the best practices. The COP sessions are generally held on annual basis wherein the assessment reports of the climate measures and the adequacy of those measures are discussed and the reports are reviewed and adopted.

UNFCCC has established Secretariat at Bonn, Germany. The Secretariat has been established

• To make arrangements for meeting of COP and the subsidiary bodies established under the Convention
• To compile and submit reports to the COP
• To assist the developing countries in collection and compilation of data To submit report on activities
• To ensure coordination among various bodies and institutions dealing with climate change

In addition, UNFCC has also established Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice and Subsidiary Body of Implementation. Further, Adhoc Working groups have been constituted.

Article 11 of UNFCCC contemplates setting up of financial mechanism for provision of financial resources on grant or concessional basis to developing countries to help them implement their obligations under the Convention. The financial mechanism is also meant to ensure facilitation of technology transfer. Under the Convention, Green Climate Fund (GCF) has been created by the 16th

COP held at Cancun in 2010. The GCF is presently being administered by the GCF Board consisting of the Trustee i.e. the World Bank. The Fund is an international initiative to ensure contribution to the united global response to climate change. The Fund has been created to ensure low emission and climate-resilient development. The independent review mechanism is required to review the decisions made by the Board and it will ensure that the Fund functions smoothly and efficiently. (Laura, Green Climate Fund)

It is worth mentioning here that initially the thrust of UNFCCC was on mitigating the climate change and therefore to contain the emission of GHG. However, after the adoption of Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF) at Cancun Climate Change Conference, 2010, the focus on adaptation to climate change has also been made. The purpose of CAF is to accord same level of priority to adaptation as is given to mitigation and accordingly to prepare the developing countries to adapt to climate change so as to reduce their vulnerability.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC is having its headquarters in Geneva. It was established in 1988 by World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The aim of establishing IPCC was to provide scientific data on climate change and its likely impacts on environment and the socio-economic conditions. The primary aim of establishing IPCC were

• To make assessment of climate change and to provide scientific information on climate change so that its reports can form the basis of international and national legal instruments to control and combat climate change
• To analyze the impacts of climate change on the environment and socio-economic conditions and also to explore the future risks involved
• To provide policy guidance on developing approaches to combat, mitigate and adapt to climate change

Organizational Structure of IPCC

Membership of IPCC is open to all members of United Nations and World Meteorological Organization and presently 195 countries are members of IPCC. IPCC has a huge team of experts and scientists from across the globe. IPCC has established three working groups and a Task Force

• Working Group – I – Physical Science Basis
• Working Group – II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• Working Group – III – Mitigation of Climate Change
• Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

These working groups and Task Force are assisted by Technical Support Units. IPCC has the following organizational structure

IPCC Plenary – All major decisions are taken in the Plenary sessions of IPCC wherein governmental representatives of member states including research organizations meet generally once a year and take decisions. All decisions pertaining to election of IPCC Bureau, the Chair of IPCC, Task Force, work plan, budget etc are taken in the Plenary Meetings of IPCC. This apart, the reports of IPCC are presented in Plenary meetings wherein they are approved and adopted. Plenary sessions also lay down the structure and mandate of working groups, task force and the principles and procedures of IPCC.

IPCC Bureau – IPCC Bureau is elected by IPCC Plenary for duration of an assessment cycle. Currently IPCC is in its sixth assessment cycle. Presently there are 34 members of IPCC Bureau which includes the IPCC Chair, Chairs and Vice-Chairs of Working Groups and Task Force. IPCC Plenary has laid down the Principles Governing IPCC work and in accordance with these principles, IPCC Bureau provides technical and scientific guidance to the IPCC on strategic issues.

Executive Committee – Executive Committee has been constituted to ensure timely implementation of IPCC work and to facilitate coordination between various Working Groups. Executive Committee consists of Advisory Members i.e. Four heads of Technical Support Groups and Head of Secretariat. It includes other members i.e. IPCC Chair, Vice Chair, Co-chairs of Working Groups and Task Force. The main function of Executive Committee is to deal with issues pertaining to IPCC programmes requiring urgent attention and to oversee the reports of IPCC and responding to the possible errors in the report. In addition, Executive Committee is also required to facilitate the coordination between Working Groups and Task Force.

Since its establishment IPCC has completed five assessment cycles and is currently in sixth assessment cycle which is likely to be completed in 2022. IPCC assessments are authored by select leading scientists and the reports are meticulously drafted, reviewed and finalized to provide factsheet and scientific data. Special reports dealing with special issues are also prepared and published so as to create scientific database for taking future steps. Scientific database generated by IPCC in its first assessment cycle brought Climate Change to the forefront and paved the way for the adoption of UNFCCC. The Second Assessment Report led to adoption of Kyoto Protocol. Because of unique structure of IPCC i.e. blend of scientists, experts and intergovernmental representatives, IPCC has an edge in providing credible scientific data for policy making.

Kyoto Protocol

UNFCCC provided for a framework to deal with climate change and laid down the obligations of the parties to reduce the emission of GHG but it did not lay down any specific targets to be achieved within a specific time frame. Instead it left the same to be decided by COP. Framework Convention also contained provisions for further amendments and for adoption of Protocols to achieve the objectives of the Convention. Accordingly, immediately after adoption of UNFCCC and its entry into force in 1994, there was felt a need to have specific targets for parties for reducing emission of GHG within a specific time frame and to further strengthen the Convention. Accordingly, negotiations began for adoption of a Protocol and within an year of entry into force of the Convention, the Protocol was negotiated. The Protocol was finally adopted on December 11, 1997 in Kyoto, Japan by consensus with more than 150 signatories. The Protocol is known as Kyoto Protocol. The main feature of the Protocol is that it laid down mandatory targets for reduction of GHG emissions which were accepted by leading developing nations of the World. The Protocol provided for reduction of emission of six major GHGs viz., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride.

In 2001, at Marrakesh, Morocco, detailed rules for implementation of Kyoto Protocol were adotped. It called for establishment of Special Climate Change Fund to finance projects for mitigation and adaptation to climate change and for development and transfer of technology to developing countries. In addition, Least Developed Countries Fund was also created. In 2003, reporting guidelines for reporting under the Protocol were adopted on the recommendations of IPCC. It is worth mentioning here that USA did not ratify the Protocol and it was only when Russian Federation ratified the Protocol in November 2004 that the path was set for the entry into force of the Protocol. The Protocol entered into force on 16th February 2005.

The object of the Protocol was to reduce emission of GHG by atleast 5% below 1990 levels during the first commitment period i.e. 2008-2012. The Protocol was based on CBDR and RC and therefore the targets were different for different countries like the target was 8% for European Union, 6% for Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland, 7% for USA. As a matter of fact, European Union was able to go beyond their stipulated targets during the first commitment period. USA indicated that it shall not ratify Kyoto Protocol and Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011 claiming that the Protocol is not workable because the highest emitters of GHG viz USA and China have not ratified the Protocol.

The Protocol was made for the period upto 2012 and was set to expire thereafter. Accordingly on December 8, 2012 at Doha, Qatar, Doha Amendment to Kyoto Protocol was adopted. Doha Amendment introduced Second Commitment Period i.e. from 01st January 2013 to 31st December 2020. The amendment introduced revised list of GHG and the commitment of parties to reduce GHG emission. Doha Amendment added seventh GHG to the list of gases whose emission is to be limited  i.e. Nitrogen Trifluoride. It has prescribed higher emission reduction targets for the second commitment period. Annex II countries decided to reduce their GHG emission by 18% of their 1990 level. European Union has agreed to have joint target of 20% reduction of GHG of its 1990 level.

The Protocol offers flexibility to the nations to reduce emissions in their own territory or to finance projects in other countries to reduce emissions. Further, the emission targets can be compensated by increasing sinks of carbon dioxide. Oceans and forests are the sinks of carbon dioxide therefore increasing forest cover can reduce increased carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Mechanism under Kyoto Protocol

Clean Development Mechanism

Protocol has also established Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which allows flexibility to developed countries to achieve their emission reduction targets by sponsoring emission reduction projects in developing countries and earning saleable Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits each credit being equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide which can be used to achieve reduction targets. CDM project may include Rural Electrification projects based on solar power. Mechanism became operational in 2006 and since then it has more than 1650 projects registered under it.

Joint Implementation

Kyoto Protocol offers flexibility in the form of Joint Implementation as well. This mechanism allows a party (annex B party) which is obligated to have reduction in emission of GHG to have a project in another country having emission reduction target i.e. another annex B country and earn units which can be utilized to achieve their targets.

Emission Trading

First Commitment Period allowed parties with emission reduction responsibility to sell their unused units of emission reduction targets i.e. the parties, who have been allowed to have emissions upto certain level but have not utilized them, can sell their assigned units which is known as Carbon Trading.

As of date only 108 parties have ratified Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol as against total of 144 countries required for entry into force of Doha Amendment. Moreover, New Zealand, Japan and Russia have decided not to participate in the second commitment period. India has ratified Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2017. Further, in the absence of US, China, Russia, the total emission of countries who have ratified the Doha Amendment is not more than 20% of the total global GHG emission. (www.bmub.bund.de). Hence, the gains made by reduction of emission of GHG by select developed countries are offset by increased emission of developing countries like China and India. The problem is further aggravated by non participation of various developed countries like Russia, USA, New Zealand and Canada.

Paris Agreement

Kyoto Protocol was set to expire in 2012 but Doha Amendment bridged the gap between the Kyoto Protocol and the new instrument on climate change which was set to be operational by 2020. Accordingly, negotiations began at the international level to conclude an agreement under UNFCCC which would obligate all parties to contribute in mitigating climate change and in adapting to climate change. Therefore, parties entered into Paris Agreement under UNFCCC at 21st COP in 2015. The agreement was due to enter into force when the parties who account for atleast 55% of the total GHG emission ratified the agreement, accordingly, the agreement entered into force on 04th December 2016 on ratification by requisite number of states.

Paris Agreement was seen as a turning point in international concern for climate change wherein instead of select countries under Kyoto Protocol, all nations of the world would have to contribute in mitigating to climate change by limiting emission of GHG.

Aims and Objectives of Paris Agreement

The agreement has been entered into for enhancing global response to climate change and for furthering the objectives of UNFCCC. The aims of Paris agreements are:

• To contain average increase in global temperature upto 2 degrees from pre-industrial levels, however, the ambitious aim is to contain it upto 1.5 degree.
• To increase adaptability to climate change and to promote low GHG emission development maintaining balance between food production and development. The agreement sets out the goal of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and to promote sustainable development (Article 7).
• To ensure financial flows and assistance in consonance with low GHG emissions and climate resilience development (Article 2).

Paris Agreement, being entered into under the Framework Convention, also recognized and applied principle of Equity, CBDR and RC and therefore, it recognizes that the emissions of developing countries and least developed countries are yet to peak to meet their developmental needs. Therefore, the agreement desires that the global emissions of GHG should peak as early as possible and there should be rapid reductions thereafter. The Agreement calls for ensuring that the global emission of GHG during the period 2050 to 2100 should be to that level only which can be absorbed by natural sinks. Agreement mandated parties to submit Intended National Determined Contributions (INDC) containing the action plan of the country parties to contain climate change and to reduce the emission of GHG (Article 4). INDC are required to be communicated every five years (Article 4, para 10). Paris agreement calls for enhancing and conservation of sinks and reservoirs of GHGs. The agreement also calls for inter-country cooperation and coordinated approach in implementation of INDC.

Like the CAF, it also stresses ‘adaptation’ strategies so as to adapt to climate change to reduce the vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change. In this context, the agreement provides for strengthening CAF with regard to Sharing information; strengthening institutional arrangments; strengthening scientific knowledge and; improving the effectiveness and durability of adaptation actions. The parties are called upon to submit adaptation strategy periodically and to update the same on periodical basis (Article 7).

It is worth mentioning here that in 19th COP of UNFCCC held in Warsaw, Poland in November 2013, Warsaw International Loss and Damage Mechanism was established to assess the loss and damage associated with the climate change including loss and damage due to extreme events and slow onset events in developing countries which are vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change. This mechanism has been constituted not only to assess the loss and damage but also to improve coordination among various climate change institutions/bodies under UNFCCC and to convene meetings of experts, stakeholders and thereby to provide technical guidance and support. Paris Agreement has provided for working of this mechanism for and under the Paris agreement subject to the authority of COP of UNFCCC. The agreement provides for strengthening of this mechanism including increased cooperation and coordination in various actions including early warning systems, slow onset events, emergency preparedness etc.

Paris Agreement also provides that developed countries should help the developing countries and LDC financially so that the developing countries are in a position to meet their responsibilities regarding climate change. Green Climate Fund constituted under UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol shall also function for Paris Agreement and accordingly, agreement calls for increased and enhanced financial support to developing and LDC towards adaptation and mitigation. This apart, Paris agreement makes provisions for cooperation in technology transfer, capacity building increased awareness towards climate change, education and training etc.

All parties to the agreement have been obligated to provide national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions of GHG and their removal by sinks of GHG. The information is required to be submitted periodically. The information is required to be reviewed by technical experts. The information on climate change impacts and adaptation is also required to be provided on periodical basis. The first global stock-take of actions to address climate change shall take place in 2023 and thereafter every five years.

Conclusion

Paris Agreement has therefore, attempted to establish a wider framework than under the Kyoto Protocol and is therefore set to replace the Kyoto Protocol and has aimed to further strengthen international efforts to combat climate change and to mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, the effect of Paris Agreement on Climate Change is yet to be seen. Further, the withdrawal of US from Paris agreement is a blow to the international efforts as US is one of the leading GHG emitters. Further, the agreement has not laid down any specific targets for reduction of GHG as were laid down in Kyoto Protocol. It is further to be noted that Kyoto also dealt only with less than 20% emissions of GHG. Further, Kyoto had provided for Carbon Trading and created Carbon Market, what will be future of such carbon market will also be visible in the years to come (Javier de Cendra, 2016).