36 Population growth: recent trends and challenges

Gautam Kshatriya and Ms. Varhlunchhungi

Contents:

    1.      Learning outcome

2.      Introduction

3.      Characteristics of Population

4.      Population Explosion

5.      Causes of Overpopulation

6.      Measures to control and initiates Population growth

7.      Population Policy

8.      Summary

1.  Learning Objectives:

• To explain the status of population growth in India.
• To understand different issues related to population growth.
• To explain different characteristics of population.
• To explain the trend of population growth and challenges.
• To explain the measures and initiatives taken to control population growth.

    2.  Introduction:

The growth of population in India was slow up to 1921 but after this year it increased significantly. It is for this reason that 1921 is described as the year of the Great Divide. After 1921, India passed through successively all the phases of demographic transition and now has entered into the fifth phase which is characterised by rapidly declining fertility. Rate of growth of population is a function of birth rate and death rate. The increase in population in India can be explained by the variations in birth and death rates. The birth rate in India declined from 49.2 per thousand in 1901 to 25.8 in 2001. In the same period, the death rate has fallen from 42.6 per thousand to 8.5 per thousand. The natural growth rate during 1901-1911 was 6.6 whereas it was 17.3 in 1991-2001 (1). The increase in natural growth rate explains that the fall in death rate was more than the fall in birth rate. The fall in death rates were due to the development of medical facilities and control of epidemics and diseases. This is a very healthy sign of development. The census results of birth rate shows that the family planning programmes have to target the country especially the rural areas in a much more effective manner so that birth rate can still be reduced.

Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/w2612e/w2612e11.htm

Fig 1: Flowchart of population growth

3. Characteristics of Population:

i. Exponential growth:

When a quantity increases by a constant amount per unit time e.g. 1, 3, 5,7 etc. it is called linear growth. But, when it increases by a fixed percentage it is known as exponential growth e.g. 10, 102, 103, 104, or 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 etc. Population growth takes place exponentially and that explains the dramatic increase in global population in the past 150 years.

ii. Doubling time:

The time needed for a population to double its size at a constant annual rate is known as doubling time.

It is calculated as follows:

Td = 70/r

where Td = Doubling time in years

r = annual growth rate

If a nation has 2% annual growth rate, its population will double in 35 years.

Fig. 3: Population growth of India from 2006 – 2016

iii. Total Fertility Rates (TFR):

It is one of the key measures of a nation’s population growth. TFR is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if the age specific birth rates remain constant. The value of TFR varies from 1.9 in developed nations to 4.7 in developing nations. In 1950’s the TFR has been 6.1. However, due to changes in cultural and technological set up of societies and government policies the TFR has come down which is a welcome change.

iv. Infant mortality rate:

It is an important parameter affecting future growth of a population. It is the percentage of infants died out of those born in a year. Although this rate has declined in the last 50 years, but the pattern differs widely in developed and developing countries.

v. Zero population growth (ZPG):

When birth plus immigration in a population are just equal to deaths plus emigration, it is said to be zero population growth.

vi. Male-female ratio:

The ratio of boys and girls should be fairly balanced in a society to flourish. However, due to female infanticides and gender-based abortions, the ratio has been upset in many countries including India. In China, the ratio of boys to girls became 140 : 100 in many regions which led to scarcity of brides.

vii. Life expectancy:

It is the average age that a new-born infant is expected to attain in a given country. The average life expectancy, over the globe, has risen from 40 to 65.5 years over the past century.

In India, life expectancy of males and females was only 22.6 years and 23.3 years, respectively in 1900. In the last 100 years improved medical facilities and technological advancement has increased the life expectancy to 60.3 years and 60.5 years, respectively for the Indian males and females. In Japan and Sweden, life expectancy is quite higher, being 82.1-84.2 for females and 77-77.4 for males, respectively.

viii. Demographic transition:

Population growth is usually related to economic development. There occurs a typical fall in death rates and birth rates due to improved living conditions leading to low population growth, a phenomenon called demographic transition. It is associated with urbanisation and growth and occurs in four phases:

(a)  Pre-industrial phase characterized by high growth and death rates and net population growth is low.

(b)   Transitional phase that occurs with the advent of industrialization providing better hygiene and medical facilities and adequate food, thereby reducing deaths. Birth rates, however, remain high and the population shows 2.5-3% growth rate.

(c)  Industrial phase while there is a fall in birth rates thereby lowering growth rate.

(d)  Post-industrial phase during which zero population growth is achieved.

Demographic transition is already observed in most developing nations. As a result of demographic transition the developed nations are now growing at a rate of about 0.5% with a doubling time of 118 years. However, the matter of concern is that more than 90% of the global population is concentrated in developing nations which have a growth rate a little more than 2%, and a doubling time of less than 35 years.

4. Population Explosion:

Population Explosion refers the sudden and rapid rise in the size of population, especially human population. It is an unchecked growth of human population caused as a result of increased birth rate, decreased infant mortality rate, and improved life expectancy. In other words, a drastic growth in population beyond normal limits is called population explosion. It is more prominent in under-developed and developing countries than in developed countries.

Population explosion mainly refers to the surge in population post-World War II. However, in context to India, it refers to the rapid increase in population in post-Independent era.

In the year 2000, the world population was 6.3 billion and it is predicted to grow four times in the next 100 years. This unprecedented growth of human population at an alarming rate is referred to as population explosion. India is the second most populated country in the world. If the current growth rates continue, it will have 1.63 billion people by 2050 and will become the most populated country surpassing China. Population explosion is causing severe resource depletion and environmental degradation. Our resources like land, water, fossil fuels, minerals etc. are limited and due to over exploitation these resources are getting exhausted.

Even many of the renewable resources like forests, grasslands etc. are under tremendous pressure. Industrial and economic growth are raising our quality of life but adding toxic pollutants into the air, water and soil. As a result, the ecological life-support systems are getting jeopardized.

There is a fierce debate on this issue as to whether we should immediately reduce fertility rates through worldwide birth control programs in order to stabilize or even shrink the population or whether human beings will devise new technologies for alternate resources, so that the problem of crossing the carrying capacity of the earth will never actually come.

Fig. 2: Expected population from 2010 – 2050

The causes of population explosion are as follows:

i. Accelerating birth rate: Due to lack of awareness about the positive impact of using birth-control method, there has been a steady growth in birth rate.

ii. Decrease in infant mortality rate: An improvement in medical science and technology, wide usage of preventive drugs (vaccines), has reduced the infant mortality rate. There has been great improvement in medical and health-care facilities during the past few decades.

iii. Increase in life expectancy: Due to improved living conditions, better hygiene and sanitation habits, better nutrition, health education, etc. the average life expectancy of human population has improved significantly. Steady supply of good quality food makes sure that the population is well nourished. Populations grow when they are adequately nourished.

iv. Increased immigration: An increase in immigration often contributes towards population explosion, particularly in developed countries. It happens when a large number arrive at an already populated place with the intention to reside permanently.

v. Less space than required: In urban cities, it is often found that there is very less scope for making available extra space to absorb the additional population. In such cases, a large population is seen packed into a smaller space.

The effects of Population growth in India are as follows:

i. Over-population: Population explosion may lead to overpopulation, i.e., a condition where population surges to a level that the earth cannot accommodate comfortably, and poses a threat to the environment.

ii. Unemployment: In developing countries like India, with a backward economy and little scope for fruitful employment, millions of people find no work to do. The unemployed, having nothing to do and without an ensured living, are left frustrated and demoralize, losing their faith in life itself. As it happens in India and several underdeveloped countries in Asia and Africa, the unemployed threatens the very process of development and plunge the country in gloom. It is only natural. Those who are born with two hands consider it a curse when they are denied the simple right to work and earn a living. While their numbers go on multiplying and the growth rate becomes menacing, the fruits of development are found to be too inadequate to bridge the yawning gulf.

iii. Poverty: High birth rate, both historically and statistically, is associated with poverty and low standard of living. It may be noted that poverty is both the cause and effect of population explosion. Due to poverty, there has been massive growth of population. On the other hand, the large masses of people live in poverty due to overpopulation. It may sound queer, but the law is that the poorer a country the greater is the growth rate of its population. India, caught in the morass of her age-old poverty, finds herself in the midst of a population explosion. The population that was less than 400 million in the forties was found to be about 1.21 billion in 2011 census. As a result of this even the six plans completed by now have so far failed to cope with the enormous problem of unemployment. Whatever our plans might have achieved in some sixty-five years is found to be too little to eradicate poverty. More than seventy percent of Indians live in villages and most of them languish in their dark, dreary nooks; the fruits of our plans have not quite reached them. Many of them have no occupation. Due to lack of awareness, poor people fail to check population growth. In the towns too the poorer sections always have bigger families, while the rich and well-off sections live comfortably with small families. The poor in India are ignorant and superstitious, and so they do not see the advantages of planned family. Many of them never think of going against the law of nature and the will of their God; so they never refrain from breeding children, though they know that they cannot even feed them and keep them away from the curse of poverty and ignorance. Perhaps the sickening monotony of living in their world of despair leads them to torment their women with a vengeance and seek as much pleasure as they can. These poor people do not have the education necessary for planning their present with a view to ensuring a better future. This is why while their hope wears off they leap in the dark and break their neck, making things grimmer for their world. The millions of famished, under-nourished and naked children everywhere in India show the chaos this country is in.

iv. Illiteracy: The resources available are fixed. In theory and in practice, the total available resources are shared by the people using them. Population explosion is the key reason for illiteracy in India. People prefer engage their children in economic activities, rather than providing them education.

v. Malnutrition: If people do not get adequate food and nutrition, then they may suffer from poor health.

vi. Economy: People need food, clothes, shelter, and occupation to make their living. The demand for consumption should never exceed the production or resource limit. The economy of any country is negatively impacted, if there is massive population explosion beyond the tolerance limit.

 vii. Pollution and Global warming: Too much population causes too much pressure on earth. There arises excessive demand for finished products leading to over-industrialization and over-utilization of resources. The industrial discharges and fumes are the chief causes for water and air pollution. Further, the poisonous gases released because of burning of fossil fuels in factories are widely responsible for Global warming.

5. Causes of Overpopulation:

i. Decline of mortality rate:

Decline in mortality rate is the main causes of overpopulation. Advancements of technology especially in the field of health care have inevitable help in curing and battling deathly diseases. New achievements and latest discoveries in medicine have brought in better treatments for dreadful diseases in the world. This has tremendously increase life expectancy and longer healthier life for everyone. However, this issue has become a serious concern for the world as it has result in overpopulation in every developed and developing country. Advancement in medicine has greatly helped in producing new treatments for various deadly diseases which has enable man to live a longer heathier life thereby leading to the burden of overpopulation. Hence, decline in mortality rate can be termed as a blessing in disguised.

ii. Increased of fertility rate:

Thanks to the new discoveries in nutritional science, we have been able to bring in increase in the fertility rates of human beings. Medicines of today can boost the reproductive rate in human beings. There are medicines and treatments, which can help in conception. Thus, science has led to an increase in birth rate. This is certainly a reason to be proud and happy but advances in medicine have also become a cause of overpopulation.

iii. Migration:

Immigration is a problem in some parts of the world. If the inhabitants of various countries migrate to a particular part of the world and settle over there, the area is bound to suffer from the ill effects of overpopulation. If the rates of emigration from a certain nation do not match the rates of immigration to that country, overpopulation makes its way. The country becomes overly populated. Crowding of immigrants in certain parts of the world, results in an imbalance in the density of population.

iv. Lack of Education:

Illiteracy is another important cause of overpopulation. Those lacking education fail to understand the need to prevent excessive growth of population. They are unable to understand the harmful effects that overpopulation has.

They are unaware of the ways to control population. Lack of family planning is commonly seen in the illiterate lot of the world. This is one of the major factors leading to overpopulation. Due to ignorance, they do not take to family planning measures, thus contributing to a rise in population.

Viewing the issue of increasing population optimistically, one may say that overpopulation means the increase in human resources. The increase in the number of people is the increase in the number of productive hands and creative minds. But we cannot ignore the fact that the increase in the number producers implies an increase in the number of consumers. Greater number of people requires a greater number of resources.

6. Measures to control and initiates Population growth:

The government cannot ignore or shelve the problem of population explosion, for it is a rot and entire development of the country depends on how effectively it is stemmed. This awareness made our governments, both at the centre and in the states, to think about the adopt official programme to educate public opinion and reduce the birth rate so that the population can fit in well with the evolving pattern of developing economy.

The Family Planning as an official programme was launched with much fanfare in 1952. The government is still trying to educate the people. All government agencies and institutions mobilized all their resources to attain the goal of planned families. The propaganda machinery was geared up with the help of public media. The people were reminded of the advantages of small families, of healthy and happy children and of the need for eradicating the age-old poverty. The parents were persuaded to go in for sterilization after the births of two children, for the contraceptive were not always found to be safe and full-proof. Many parents, especially the educated, came forward to see things in the new light and were amenable to persuasion. However, many others resisted, at places quite violently, and refused to see reason. The government was very serious about making the programme a success. The state governments also came forward to help the centre in its bid to achieve success. Cheap contraceptives were distributed in even the remotest villages, sex education was popularized, vasectomy operations were conducted and abortion was legalized.

However, even then family planning has a lot more to achieve, for the population in India has already become about 121 billion and at this rate of growth it may very soon become 150 billion and then 200 billion and so on.

The problem of population can be solved only by creating awareness and educating the people to control birth rates. The advantages of adopting to various birth control methods should be properly explained to common people.

Population explosion has caused more pressure on earth. We should save energy so that the entire population can enjoy its benefit. We can control the global warming issues by curbing the usage of fossil fuels. Food security is another area that needs attention. The agricultural output should increase with growing population to make sure steady supply of food to all. We should use potable water carefully. With larger population, there is a need for harmony and peace among nations.

7. Population Policy

India was the first developing country to adopt a population policy and to launch a nationwide family planning programme in 1952. The main objective of the population policy is to ensure that there is reasonable gap between the fall of death and birth rates. Population policy refers to the efforts made by any Government to control and change the population structure. The National Population Policy (NPP)-2000 recently adopted by the Government of India states that the long term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable development, and environment protection.

The National Population Policy (NPP)-2011 stated that As per the latest World Population Prospects released by United Nations (revision 2015, the estimated population of India will be 1419 million approximately whereas China’s population will be approximately 1409 million, by 2022. In spite of the perceptible decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.6 in 1991 to 2.3 in 2013, India is yet to achieve replacement level of 2.1. Twenty four states/UTs have already achieved replacement level of TFR by 2013, while states like UP and Bihar with large population base still have TFR of 3.1 and 3.4 respectively. The other states like Jharkhand (TFR 2.7), Rajasthan (TFR 2.8), Madhya Pradesh (TFR 2.9), and Chhattisgarh (TFR 2.6) continue to have higher levels of fertility and contribute to the growth of population.

The National Population Policy 2000, is uniformly applicable to the whole country. In pursuance of this policy, Government has taken a number of measures under Family Planning Programme and as a result, Population Growth Rate in India has reduced substantially which is evident from the following:-

i.  The percentage decadal growth rate of the country has declined significantly from 21.5% for the period 1991-2001 to 17.7% during 2001-2011.

ii. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 3.2 at the time when National Population Policy, 2000 was adopted and the same has declined to 2.3 as per Sample registration Survey (SRS) 2013 conducted by the Registrar General of India.

As the existing NPP-2000 is uniformly applicable to all irrespective of religions and communities etc., therefore no proposal is under consideration of the Government to formulate new uniform population policy. The steps taken by the Government under various measures/programme are given below:-Measures taken by the Government of India to Control the Population Growth are as below:

A.    On-going interventions:

i.    More emphasis on Spacing methods like IUCD.

ii.   Availability of Fixed Day Static Services at all facilities.

iii. A rational human resource development plan is in place for provision of IUCD, minilap and NSV to empower the facilities (DH, CHC, PHC, SHC) with at least one provider each for each of the services and Sub Centres with ANMs trained in IUD insertion.

iv. Quality care in Family Planning services by establishing Quality Assurance Committees at state and district levels.

v.   Improving contraceptives supply management up to peripheral facilities.

vi. Demand generation activities in the form of display of posters, billboards and other audio and video materials in the various facilities.

vii. National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme’ (NFPIS) under which clients are insured in the eventualities of deaths, complications and failures following sterilization and the providers/ accredited institutions are indemnified against litigations in those eventualities.

viii. Compensation scheme for sterilization acceptors – under the scheme MoHFW provides compensation for loss of wages to the beneficiary and also to the service provider (& team) for conducting sterilisations.

ix. Increasing male participation and promotion of Non Scalpel Vasectomy.

x.  Emphasis on Miniap Tubectomy services because of its logistical simplicity and requirement of only MBBS doctors and not post graduate gynecologists/surgeons.

xi. Accreditation of more private/NGO facilities to increase the provider base for family planning services under PPP.

xii.  Strong political will and advocacy at the highest level, especially, in States with high fertility rates.

   B. Interventions under Family Planning Programme

i.  Scheme for Home delivery of contraceptives by ASHAs at doorstep of beneficiaries: The govt. has launched a scheme to utilize the services of ASHA to deliver contraceptives at the doorstep of beneficiaries.

ii.  Scheme for ASHAs to ensure spacing in births: The scheme is operational from 16th May, 2012, under this scheme, services of ASHAs to be utilised for counselling newly married couples to ensure delay of 2 years in birth after marriage and couples with 1 child to have spacing of 3 years after the birth of 1stchild. ASHAs are to be paid the following incentives under the scheme:-

a.       Rs. 500/- to ASHA for ensuring spacing of 2 years after marriage.

b.      Rs. 500/- to ASHA for ensuring spacing of 3 years after the birth of 1st child.

c.       Rs. 1000/- in case the couple opts for a permanent limiting method up to 2 children only. The scheme is being implemented in 18 States of the country (8 EAG, 8 NE Gujarat and Haryana).

iii. Boost to spacing methods by introduction of new method PPIUCD (Post-Partum Intra Uterine Contraceptives Device.

iv. Introduction of the new device   Cu IUCD 375, which is effective for 5 years.

v. Emphasis on Postpartum Family Planning (PPFP) services with introduction of PPIUCD and promotion of minilap as the main mode of providing sterilisation in the form of post-partum sterilisation to capitalise on the huge cases coming in for institutional delivery under JSY. Assured delivery of family planning services for both IUCD and sterilisation.

vi. Compensation for sterilisation acceptors has been enhanced for 11 High Focus States ith high TFR.

vii. Compensation scheme for PPIUCD under which the service provider as well as the ASHAs who escorts the clients to the health facility for facilitating the IUCD insertion are compensated.

viii. Scheme for provision of pregnancy testing kits at the sub-centres as well as in the drug kit of the ASHAs for use in the communities to facilitate the early detection and decision making for the outcome of pregnancy.

ix. RMNCH Counsellors (Reproductive Maternal New Born and Child Health) availability at the high case facilities to ensure counselling of the clients visiting the facilities.

x. Celebration of World Population Day 11th July & Fortnight: The event is observed over a month long period, split into fortnight of mobilization/sensitization followed by a fortnight of assured family planning service delivery and has been made a mandatory activity from 2012-13 and starts from 27th June each year.

xi. FP 2020- Family Planning Division is working on the national and state wise action plans so as to achieve FP 2020 goals. The key commitments of FP 2020 are as under:

a.       Increasing financial commitment on Family Planning whereby India commits an allocation of 2 billion USD from 2012 to 2020.

b.      Ensuring access to family planning services to 48 million (4.8 crore) additional women by 2020 (40% of the total FP 2020 goal).

c.       Sustaining the coverage of 100 million (10 crore) women currently using contraceptives.

C.    Strategies to control population growth:

Reducing the unmet need by an improved access to voluntary family planning services, supplies and information.In addition to above, Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh/National Population Stabilization Fund has adopted the following strategies as a population control measure:-

i.  Prerna Strategy:- JSK has launched this strategy for helping to push up the age of marriage of girls and delay in first child and spacing in second child the birth of children in the interest of health of young mothers and infants. The couple who adopt this strategy awarded suitably. This helps to change the mindsets of the community.

ii. Santushti Strategy:- Under this strategy, Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh, invites private sector gynaecologists and vasectomy surgeons to conduct sterilization operations in Public Private Partnership mode. The private hospitals/nursing home who achieved target to 10 or more are suitably awarded as per strategy.

iii. National Helpline: – JSK also running a call centers for providing free advice on reproductive health, family planning, maternal health and child health etc. Toll free no. is 1800116555.

iv. Advocacy & IEC activities:- JSK as a part of its awareness and advocacy efforts on population stabilization, has established networks and partnerships with other ministries, development partners, private sectors, corporate and professional bodies for spreading its activities through electronic media, print media, workshop, walkathon, and other multi-level activities etc. at the national, state, district and block level.

Summary:

The benefits of family planning schemes initiated by the Government are being emphasized in many ways. Nevertheless, it requires persistent propaganda work before public opinion can be fully mobilized for a planned growth of population.

We must make an all-out drive to educate the masses in the methods of family planning. It is a good sign that a section of our people especially those belonging to the middle class are gradually becoming population conscious and are taking active interest in the methods devised and recommended for population control.

Birth rate must be kept within reason able limits to make a definite advance towards a higher standard of living, which is the primary need of India. The task will certainly be much easier if people get a chance of reaching a higher standard of living. It will then by itself serve as a kind of incentive to birth control.

Population growth has caused more pressure on earth. We should save energy so that the entire population can enjoy its benefit. We can control the global warming issues by curbing the usage of fossil fuels. Food security is another area that need attention. The agricultural output should increase with growing population to make sure steady supply of food to all. We should use potable water carefully. With larger population, there is a need for harmony and peace among nations.

References

1. Census of India, 2001 and 2011.
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    Web link:

• http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/population/populationgrowthcausescharacteristicsandexplosionofppopulation growt/9968/
• http://www.readorrefer.in/article/PopulationgrowthinIndiaandNationalPopulationPolicy2000MeasuresActionPla ns_1434/
• http://www.importantindia.com/10606/population-explosion-in-india/
• http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/wp_hwpaper.pdf

    Books to read:

1. Fundamentals of Demography- population studies with special reference to India by Dr. Hans Raj
2. Principle of Population studies by Asha A. Bhende and Tara Kanitkar
3. An Introduction to Population by Kenneth C. W. Kammeywer