6 Patterns and trends in fertility

Dr. Vijeta

epgp books

 

Contents:
1. Introduction
2. Patterns in Fertility: A global View
3. Measures and Trends of Fertility
2.1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
2.2. Age Specific Birth rate (ASFR)
2.3. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
2.4: Birth Order
2.5. Fertility Differentials
2.5.1: Fertility and Religion
2.5.2. Education and Fertility
2.5.3. Age at Marriage
4. Summary
Learning Objectives:
Through this module, one will be able to know about the Fertility patterns & Trends globally and as well as in India and also measures for fertility patterns.
1. Introduction
The study of fertility has long provoked the interest of demographers and other social scientists, due to its central role in shaping the current and future growth of populations. As today’s fertility presents a reasonably accurate picture of the future needs of a population, measures of current fertility provide a basis for policy makers to assess the future socio-economic needs of the population. Thus, fertility indicators become the most urgently needed indicators from a census or a population survey. For this reason, analysis of fertility levels and trends remain one of the most important components of a census analytical report. To formulate or evaluate policies concerning population growth, information is needed not only on the number of births, but also on trends of birth rates and other measures of fertility over time and, equally importantly, on the age-structural distribution and changes over time, of the population (Census Analysis, 2006).
2. Patterns in Fertility: A global View
Fertility patterns in the world have changed dramatically over the last few decades. Global fertility has reached unprecedented low levels, yet stark differences persist in child bearing patterns across countries and regions. The population and development implications of these diverse fertility patterns are directly relevant for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and policy making and planning in all countries (United Nations, 2015).
Fig-1: World Population by level of fertility
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility
According to the results of the 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects, total fertility is now 2.5 children per woman globally. This global average masks wide regional differences. Africa remains the region with the highest fertility at 4.7 children per woman. Europe has the lowest fertility of 1.6 children per woman. Both Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean have total fertility of 2.2 children per woman, closely followed by Oceania with 2.4 children per woman. Middle and Western Africa stand out as having particularly high fertility of over five children per woman. Eastern Asia, Eastern Europe and Southern Europe have very low fertility at fewer than 1.6 children per woman. Today, 46 per cent of the world’s population lives in countries with low levels of fertility, where women have fewer than 2.1 children on average. Low-fertility countries now include all of Europe and Northern America, as well as many countries in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Another 46 per cent of the world’s population lives in “intermediate fertility” countries that have already experienced substantial fertility declines and where women have on average between 2.1 and 5 children. The remaining 8 per cent of the world’s population lives in “high-fertility” countries that have experienced only limited fertility decline to date. In these countries the average woman has five or more children over her lifetime. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. The net reproduction rate is the average number of daughters that would be born to a woman taking into account the prevailing levels of fertility, female mortality and the sex ratio at birth. When the net reproduction rate is one, each woman is exactly replacing herself with one surviving daughter and this implies that fertility is at replacement level.
Where more boys than expected are born compared with girls, the net reproduction rate will be lower than expected for a given fertility rate and the long-term population growth rate will be lower as a result. This is the case in many countries in Asia. Globally, the net reproduction rate is 1.1 surviving daughters per woman. In all regions in the world, the net reproduction rate is at or below this level, except for Africa, where the net reproduction rate is 1.9. This means that, on average, each African mother is replacing herself with nearly two daughters, which leads to fast population growth. The trend in adolescent fertility has been downward in all regions but there are very sharp differences in levels and trends. Africa has the highest adolescent birth rate and the decline over time has been slow. High adolescent fertility also persists in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, the greater proportional decline of childbearing of women at older ages has led to a decreasing mean age at childbearing. In Europe and Northern America, where fertility was already relatively low by 1970-1975, the postponement of childbearing has led to an increasing mean age at childbearing. At lower levels of fertility, the differences in the age distribution of births tend to be larger. For example, both India and Libya have total fertility of 2.5 children per woman. However, more than three in four of all births in India are to women under the age of 30 (78 per cent) compared with only about one in three births in Libya i.e. 34 per cent (United Nations, 2015).
3. Measures and Trends of Fertility
As per the Census Analysis (2006), the following measures were obtained as a fertility measure-
2.1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR): It is the number of births in a given year per thousand of the population in the same year. The denominator is usually the mid-year population. It is a crude measure because not all persons in the population are at the risk of giving birth.
Fig-2: Trends in Crude Birth Rate in India
Source: http://www.medindia.net/health_statistics/general/cruderate.asp
Fig-1 shows the Decline in Crude Birth Rate from 29.5 in 1991 to 22.5 in 2009. The CBR is higher (24.1) in rural areas as compared to urban areas (18.3).
Based on National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2: for the period of three years viz 1996-98) the CBR was 24.8 births per 1,000 population. The CBR is 20.9 in urban areas and 26.2 in rural areas; The CBR fell from 28.7 to 24.8 between National Family Health Survey (NFHS-I: 1990-92) to National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2:1996-98) a decline of 14 per cent has been observed in this period. But the NFHS-2 estimate is below the estimates of SRS by 2.3 points in 1991. The overall census estimate for 1994- 2001 the birth rate is 25.9 per cent, So the CBR .has declined by approximately 38 percent over the period 1951-2001 and by 47 per cent over the century long period of 1901-2001. Prior to 1956, the administrative units or states are not clearly demarcated. According to the available estimates, birth rates can be observed on the basis of major regions of the country. During 1911-1921 decade itself, the birth rate was the highest (50.0) in the region of north-eastern zone. The birthrate varied from 40 to 45 excluding Madras Presidency in the Southern region. During the next decade, the birthrate declined slowly in all the other regions except Assam, Bombay Presidency and Madras Presidency. The same trend Continued till 1951-61 in most of the regions (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in). General Fertility Rate
(GFR) is the total number of live births occurring per thousand women in the reproductive period (15-49 years) in a given year. This is a slightly refined measure compared to the Crude Birth Rate, which is the number of live births in a given year per thousand of the population, irrespective of the likelihood of exposure to childbearing (Census Analysis, 2006).
2.2. Age Specific Birth rate (ASFR): It is the number of live births occurring in women of a given age group (usually five-year age groups) per woman or per thousand women at mid-year in a given year. It is usually calculated for women in five-year age groups for ages 15 to 49 years. Age-specific fertility rates follow a fairly standard pattern among women in all populations, with rates starting from zero at very young ages, rising to a peak sometimes in the twenties and then gradually declining until it reaches zero again at around age 50. Slight variations in the pattern occur, depending on differences in age at first marriage, level of contraceptive prevalence, desired family size, status of women in society, level of participation of women in out-of-home employment, and many other factors that influence childbearing in a society (Census Analysis, 2006).
Fig-3: Trends for Age specific Birth rate (ASFR) from 1971-2010
Source: Source: Prepared from SRS estimates given in India, Registrar General (2010a, 2011b) & Kulkarni, 2011
The age pattern of fertility has changed substantially. First, an impressive fall has been seen in the young ages, especially 15-19. The ASFR for this age group declined from 101 per thousand in 1971 to 38 in 2009, that is, by 62 percent. This was entirely on account of rise in the age at marriage; the Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rate (ASMFR) remained almost constant through most of the period. Only a modest fall of 18 percent was seen in the 20-24 age group, mostly attributable to rise in the age at marriage. Large decline was seen in the 25-29 age group, nearly 40 percent and this was due to corresponding decline in marital fertility. Fertility at ages beyond 30 years of age fell sharply, by over 60 percent, and beyond 40 years, by over 80 percent. As a result, fertility is now highly concentrated in the 20s (Kulkarni, 2011).
2.3.  Total  Fertility  Rate  (TFR):  It is  a  summary  measure  independent  of  the  age  and  sex composition of the population. It represents the average number of children a group of women would have at the end of their reproductive years if they had children according to a set of age-specific fertility rates pertaining to a particular year.
Fig-4: Trends in Total Fertility Rate in India from 1901-2009
TFR1: Total Fertility Rate as per Rele’s method Census based
TFR2: Total Fertility Rate as per Variable-r method
TFR3: Total Fertility Rate as per Sample Registration System based.
Source: Kulkarni, P.M. 2011. Towards an Explanation of India’s Fertility Transition. George Simmons Memorial Lecture at 33rd Annual Conference of the Indian Association for the Study of Population Lucknow, November 11-13, 2011
During the 1960s, especially the late 1960s, some fall in fertility was evident. Fairly reliable direct estimates of fertility from the Sample Registration System are available since the 1970s allowing a detailed assessment of trends. The decade of 1970s saw perceptible fall in fertility, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell below 5. Fertility stagnated in the early 80s, but the decline resumed soon with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) falling below 4 points by the end of the decade. The decline was quite substantial throughout the country; the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell by one full point between 1984 and 1993, the steepest decline seen in any ten-year period. Steady decline has continued ever since, with Total Fertility Rate (TFR) falling to 2.6 in 2009 (Kulkarni, 2011). Gross reproduction Rate (GRR) is a refined version of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Gross reproduction Rate (GRR) refers to the number of daughters a woman is likely to produce by the end of her reproductive period, given the current age schedule of fertility rates (Census Analysis, 2006).
2.4: Birth Order: The distribution of births by birth order is yet another way to look at fertility, as it indicates the relative level of fertility i.e., higher proportion of low order births would imply a low level of fertility. It has been seen that nearly 44 percent of all the births in urban and rural are of the fourth or above orders in 1961. Nearly 38 percent of total births are of the first and second order and the remaining are higher order births. But in 1995, the situation has changed very much, i.e., nearly 57 percent of births are of the first and second order and 18 percent are in third order births. Fifth and sixth order births are nil because of the adoption of small size family norm after 1970’s (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-1: Percentage Distribution of Birth by Birth order, 1961-1995
Source: Jain, S.P., “Indian Fertility – Our knowledge Gaps” Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. X, No.4, June 1964 and Registrar Generals New’s letter No.27, No.2, July-Dec, 1997, Office of the Registrar General, India (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Birth order differs by the age of the mother and residence. Table -2 shows the distribution of births during the three-years preceding the survey by birth order, according to mother’s age and residence. The number of births at each order is larger than the number at the next higher order. The highest proportion (70 percent) of births to mother’s age 15-19 are of order one, while 70 percent of births to mother’s age 30-39 are of order four or higher. The proportion of births of first order forms the major share in urban areas whereas in rural areas the fourth order births is more. The fourth order or higher births are less (on1y 19 percent) in urban areas (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-2: Percent Distribution of Births by Age and Residence, 1998-99
Source: NFHS-2 (2000) and shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in
2.5. Fertility Differentials: The identification of the groups of higher fertility, along with the underlying causes, could be of great utility from the point of view of the family planning programme. The different variables and their effect on fertility are discussed briefly as under:
2.5.1: Fertility and Religion: Fertility is different among different religions in 1ndia.The operating force behind religious differentials affecting fertility to be the different cultural values by different religious teachings. The value system attached to various factors (i.e., widow remarriage, abstinence and religious purity, adopting of mechanical contraceptives and so on) in different religions can be regarded as responsible for fertility differentials to a certain extent. Generally fertility among Muslims has been observed to be higher than among Hindus in India. Different studies had revealed different rates of fertility among different religions in India. According to Driver, the fertility of different religions in Central India was: Muslims (4.6), Hindus 14.5), Buddhists (4.9), other religions (4.1) and average for all castes (4.1)’ This was also proved by Mukerjee and Singh that the fertility of Muslims (3.7) was high, followed by Hindus (3.4), Sikhs (2,8),Christians (2.7)and others (2.7). According to Social Survey conducted in Kanpur in 1954-55 the fertility rate was high among Muslims (8.021) and Hindus (7.037). Table -3 shows a higher rate of fertility song Muslims (TFR: 4.48). The next place is occupied by Hindus (TFR: 3.77) followed by Sikhs (TFR: 3.45) and Christians (TFR: 2.79) (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-3: Fertility Differentials by Religion and Caste, 1960-99
Source: 1) Mukejee, R,K, and Baljit Singh, Social profiles of a Metropolis, Bombay: Asia Publishing House, 1961; p.166. 2) Driver E.D., Differential Fertility in Central India, Princeton University Press, New Zersey, 1963, p.88. 3) Registrar General, India Sample Registration Bulletin, Vol. No.1(8), June 1980, pp.22-24. 4) Aganvala, S.N., A Demography study of six urbanising villages, Asea Publishing House, Bombay, 1970, p. 101. 5) NFHS – 2, 2000 (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
2.5.2. Education and Fertility: The educational status of the husband and wife has a significant association with the fertility of the couple. Several studies have pointed out an inverse correlation between education and fertility i.e., fertility rate decreases with education. According to NFHS-2, Illiterates are having higher fertility (3.47) than all the succeeding higher education levels (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-4: Fertility Differentials by Education: 1961-99
Source: Mukerjee, R. K. Socio Profiles of a Metropolis, Asia Publishing House, 1961, pp. 163-164 and NFHS-2, 2000 and (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
2.5.3. Age at Marriage: In the middle ages, female age at marriage was very low because there was a common belief that it was religiously desirable that the girl should be married before attaining puberty. In less developed countries the average age at marriage is going up but in developed countries it is going down by a few years (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-5: Mean Age at Marriage for Females in India: 1891-1991
Source: Various Census Reports and shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in
Age at marriage is different for various caste groups in India, There are differences among sub castes of a major caste, but in view of the fact that these differences are minor as against differences among major caste, such a, a broad classification is adequate to give a rough indication of differences by caste. The females of the depressed castes have the lowest mean age at marriage, followed by the Brahmins, the warrior castes, and the trading castes. The difference between the depressed caste females and Brahman females is roughly one year. In table-6, we can observe that when compared with others, marriages amongst scheduled castes takes place at an early age especially amongst those residing in rural areas. Scheduled tribes occupied second place after scheduled castes regarding age at marriage. Other groups like non SC/ST groups occupy the last place and especially in urban areas, the marriages below 18 are the least (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-6: Mean Age at Marriage for Different Caste Groups: 1991
Source: Census (1991)
Substantial rural urban differences have been observed in the mean at marriage. The table -7 shows the differentials from 1961 to 1994. During this period a difference of 1.1 to 2.5 years was observed between rural and urban females. Generally urban atmosphere delays the marriage due to higher education, better occupation and attitude towards marriage. Besides, there is the practice of early and child marriages in rural areas since the people feel marriage as a burden and responsibility of the parents (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
Table-7: Mean Age at Marriage by Residence: 1991
Source: Census (1991) and (shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in).
4. Summary
As today’s fertility presents a reasonably accurate picture of the future needs of a population, measures of current fertility provide a basis for policy makers to assess the future socio-economic needs of the population. Thus, fertility indicators become the most urgently needed indicators from a census or a population survey. For this reason, analysis of fertility levels and trends remain one of the most important components of a census analytical report. Fertility patterns in the world have changed dramatically over the last few decades. Global fertility has reached unprecedented low levels, yet stark differences persist in child bearing patterns across countries and regions. According to the results of the 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects, total fertility is now 2.5 children per woman globally. Today, 46 per cent of the world’s population lives in countries with low levels of fertility, where women have fewer than 2.1 children on average. At lower levels of fertility, the differences in the age distribution of births tend to be larger. For example, both India and Libya have total fertility of 2.5 children per woman. However, more than three in four of all births in India are to women under the age of 30 (78 per cent) compared with only about one in three births in Libya i.e. 34 per cent. The fertility trends can be measured through Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Age Specific Birth rate (ASFR), Age Specific Birth rate (ASFR), Birth Order and Fertility Differentials.
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    References

  • Census Analysis, 2006. Fertility levels, Patterns and differentials.
  • United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Fertility Patterns 2015 – Data Booklet (ST/ESA/ SER.A/370).
  • http://www.medindia.net/health_statistics/general/cruderate.asp
  • Kulkarni, P.M. 2011. Towards an Explanation of India’s Fertility Transition. George Simmons Memorial Lecture at 33rd Annual Conference of the Indian Association for the Study of Population Lucknow, November 11-13, 2011.
  • Hussain Niyaaz, 2000. Fertility Levels, Patterns & Differentials. Analytical Report, Census of the Maldives-2000
  • http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/37835/12/12_chapter%205.pdf
  • Rele, J. R. (1987). Fertility levels and trends in India, 1951-81. Population and Development Review, 513-530.
  • Drèze, J., & Murthi, M. (2001). Fertility, education, and development: evidence from India. Population and development Review, 27(1), 33-63.
  • Chandrasekaran, C. (1954, August). Fertility trends in India. In Proceedings of the World Population Conference (Vol. 1, p. 829).

    Suggesting Readings

  • Knodel, J. (1983). Natural fertility: age patterns levels and trends.
  • Ford, T. R., & DeJong, G. F. (1970). Social Demography.
  • Swedlund, A. C., & Armelagos, G. J. (1976). Demographic anthropology. WCB/McGraw-Hill.
  • Kertzer, D. I., & Fricke, T. E. (Eds.). (1997). Anthropological demography: Toward a new synthesis. University of Chicago Press.
  • Howell, N. (1986). Demographic anthropology. Annual Review of Anthropology, 15(1), 219 246.
  • Weiss, K. M., & Wobst, H. M. (1973). Demographic models for anthropology. Memoirs of the society for American Archaeology, (27), i-186.