16 Demography and Anthropological Demography
Mir Azad Kalam
Contents:
- Introduction
- History of Demography
- Types of demography
- Features of demography
- Demography towards Anthropology
- Anthropological demography
- Theoretical challenges in Anthropological Demography
- Rates and ratio used in Anthropological demography
- Summary
Learning objectives:
- To know about History of Demography
- To study features of Demography
- Anthropological Demography
- What are the theoretical challenges in Anthropological Demography
1. Introduction
Demography, by definition, is numerical portrayal of a human population. The term demography comes from the Greek word demos for “the people” and graphy implies “writing or description.” Demography, as a general science, can be applied to several kinds of changes in living population over time and spaces. The study of size, structure as well as distribution of population is the basic subject of demography. It is basically concerned with the behavior of the aggregate not that of an individual. It seeks to understand the dynamics of human population depending on the three vital processes: birth, death and migration. Demographers were concerned with the replacement process. Demographic analysis seeks to describe the phenomenon about the changing pattern of population but cannot offer political advice on the tackling of these changes.
2. History of Demography
Demographic study can be traced back to antiquity and present in many cultures and civilizations. Demographic writings can be found in works of Herodotus, Hippocrates, Plato and Aristotle. Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality, by J. Graunt, is one of the earliest demographic studies containing primitive form of life table. The findings of his study indicate that one third of the children in London died before reaching sixteen years [Graunt 1939]. Human societies are always conditioned by demographic characteristics, thinkers such as Malthus or, later, Boserup have made sweeping claims for the fundamental role of population growth as the key independent variable. Khaldun (1332-1406) is regarded as the “father of demography” for his economic analysis of social organization which produced the first scientific and theoretical work on population, development, and group dynamics. Thomas Malthus, at the end of the eighteen century, argued that the population unavoidably grew quickly to exhaust resources regardless of the growth rate in latter because of the superior power of geometric series compared to an arithmetic one. Malthus feared that this growth of the population would tend to outstrip growth in production which leads to famine as well as poverty. This flawed perspective was unfortunately used as the basis for population policies biased against the poor and aimed at protecting social surpluses for the upper classes. Later on, during the period 1860 to 1910, there was a transition wherein demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest. Adolphe Quetelet (1796- 1874), William Farr(1807-1883), Ander Nicolas Kairer(1838- 1919), Emile Durkheim(1858-1917), Luigi Boido(1840-1920) and many others were among great demographers during that period of time (Gans et al. 2000).
Defined in this way, demographic studies provide an empirical foundation on which other social sciences are built. It is hard to imagine that a social science can advance steadily without first knowing the basic information about the human population that it studies. Demography enjoyed a rapid growth in the twentieth century, as a field of inquiry. As an example, the membership of the Population Association of America (PAA), the primary association for demographers in the U.S. founded in 1931, grew from 500 in 1956 to more than 3,000 in 1999. This growth is remarkable given the virtual absence of demography departments at American universities (with a few exceptions, such as the University of California Berkeley).
3. Types of demography
In general, demography can be classified into two types: formal demography and population studies. Formal demography, whose origin can be traced to John Graunt in 1962, deals with fertility, mortality migration, and marriage formation, dissolution of this union, age structure, and spatial distribution of human population. Population studies were concerned with population composition and various factors of population changes from substantive viewpoints anchored in another discipline, sociological, economic, biological or anthropological. Population studies employ the concepts, methods and measures of formal demography, statistics.
Formal demography and population studies not only studies different subject matters, but also depend on different methodological approaches. Formal demography is built on mathematics and is closely tied to mathematical demography. It has a rich arsenal of powerful research tools, such as life tables and stable population theory. It is noted mathematical models in formal demography sometimes incorporate stochastic processes. The refinement and formalization of mathematical demography and its successful application to human populations can be found in works by Coale (1972), Keyfitz (1985), Preston and Campbell (1993), Rogers (1975), and Sheps and Menken (1973)(cited in Yi Xie 2000). In its applications, mathematical demography typically presumes access to population data and handles heterogeneity through disaggregation (i.e., dividing a population into subpopulations).
Population studies methods are diverse, heavily borrowed from substantive social science disciplines. Since the 1960s, the widespread use of survey data and the role of statistical inference in all social science disciplines are predominant; it should come as no surprise that the main method in population studies is statistical. The types of statistical methods used in demography vary and change quickly, ranging from path analysis and structural equations (Duncan 1975) and log-linear models (Goodman 1984) to econometric models (Heckman 1979; Willis and Rosen 1979) and event history models (Yamaguchi 1991) (cited in Yi Xie 2000).
4. Features of demography
Demography, as a scientific decline, has a number of individual features. Some of these features include quantitative nature, interdisciplinary and applicability.
1.) Mostly quantitative and relatively more accurate. Explanation, discussion and description of changes in size, structure, distribution, fertility, mortality, marriage union formation and breakage mostly rely on demographic data available from census, surveys, which facilitate quantitative analysis of demography. Because of rich data resources and large sample sizes, many people believe that demography is the most ‘accurate’ discipline as compared to other social science discipline. Most influential sociologist, Philip Hauser in 20th century stated, “working with demographic phenomenon thus enables the sociologist to avoid frustration he all too frequently encounters when neither his independent nor his dependent variables are sufficient well measured to permit the observation of possible relationships.” Utilizing past record of fertility, mortality migration, demographers are able to predict future population size, age structure with a high degree of confidence.
2.) Interdisciplinary in nature. Population studies, as said earlier, consist of large part of demography, are interdisciplinary in nature, crossing over between formal demography and other discipline like sociology, economics, anthropology, gerontology, geography, biology, business and government management. For the study of fertility and population aging, it uses biology and sociology, while for the study of migration labor force, draws heavily on economics and geography, for mortality study uses health science. A typical example of interdisciplinary nature of demography is the national research entity the “Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic institute,” part of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Science. A book by Hauser and Duncan (1959) titled ‘The Study of Population: An Inventory and Appraisal’, which include chapters like sociology and demography, physical anthropology and demography, geography and demography, ecology and demography.
3.) Applicable in nature. Demography is one the most applied discipline of science due to its nature of subject. The subject matter includes size, structure, factors of changes in human population. These are intriguing and broad public interest. This changes influence the provision of health care, family planning services education, welfare, housing, government budge. It also influences the work of financial institute and recreation agencies. The close correlation between demographic changes and industrial dealing with housing and other household consumption is a good example of its applicability.
5. Demography towards Anthropology
After the publication of Anthropological Demography: Towards New the Synthesis, Kertzer and Fricke (1997) characterize the relationship of anthropology and demography as “long, tortured, often ambivalent, and sometimes passionate’ and recognizes that anthropological demography is mainly the results of the opening of the demographic community towards anthropological insights into population process, while the majority of anthropologists still hesitate about learning and adopting demographic techniques”(Kertzer and Fricke 1997). Social anthropologists, during the early decades of twentieth century, made a profound use of population data, focusing on kinship studies as one of the pillars of the social organization of production and reproduction. In early 1950s, demographer turned to study the wisdom of the anthropological literature. A few anthropologists were invited to join the Committee on Population Problems in Non-industrial Societies of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) during this period. Later on during 1960s and 1970s, two major demographic projects manifest the methodological and theoretical boundaries within which demography has been contained then. One of the projects was Princeton University’s European Fertility Project and the other project was World Fertility Surveys.
The aim of the Princeton University’s European Fertility Project was to test and confirm theories of demographic transition by documenting the changing pattern of fertility, mortality, industrialization and literacy in European population. But the failure of this Project to explain the European Demographic Transition in purely economic terms tends demography’s interest in culture and anthropology. Suddenly, demographers were forced to consider incorporating culture into models of demographic change. The World Fertility Survey aimed at producing comparable population estimates for countries with incomplete data. But the dissatisfaction with the contextual depth represented by the survey data led Caldwell to incorporate anthropological field methods in the construction of small scale demographic studies. The presence of the field researcher with collaboration with anthropologist within a common research work allow a better understanding and better evaluation of the demographic phenomenon due to the use of local meanings on motivation for action ,and on sensitive topics.
6. Anthropological demography
Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography which uses anthropological theory and method to provide better understanding of demographic phenomenon in the current and past population. N. Howell (1976) characterized the field of anthropological demography as “devilish difficult but uncommonly interesting.” It is both the old as well as new discipline. Quetelet’s analysis of marriage (1968[1842]) or Durkheim’s study of suicide (1930) rightly be called primeval exercise in anthropological demography as they treat demographic phenomenon as social facts with unique, social and cultural explanations (cited in Bernardi 2002). At the same time it is new, only in the 1990s, a series of monographs and volumes began to codify the emerging field. Papers and books were published since the mid 1990s, are dazzling in their number, diversity, and quality. There is a big difference between demography and anthropology in models, methods as well as epistemologies could hardly be starker. Anthropology focuses on ideology, power, phenomenological experience where as demography is dominated by the statistical analysis of variation within western population. The possibilities for mutually productive intellectual exchange are enormous despite the distance between the two disciplines. Demographic rates are the true facts which could be better understood by the implication of anthropological methods and theories.
The emergence of anthropological demography as a discipline is gradual and is under development. The birth of anthropological demography can really be dated back to the last two decades of twentieth century. Major anthropological demographics’ theoretical and empirical paper has been published since 1980s and the visibility of this discipline has been enhanced by IUSSP committee. This committee had a focus on non western societies, aims to produce comparable theoretical and methodological collaboration in the European context.
Today, anthropological demography borrows heavily from the traditions of dependency theory, world system theory and political economy, in examining local non western culture in the light of larger Western capital expansion (Roth 2004).
There are basically three primary modes of research in anthropological demography. The first links biological anthropology and demography, building on work in population biology and evolutionary ecology (Jones 2004, 2006). A second body of research emerges out of science and technology studies and the Foucauldian analysis of demographic science as a core modality of biopower (Greenhalgh 1996; 2003). The third and largest corpus in contemporary anthropological demography draws on ethnographic methods and theories of culture to provide a richer understanding of demographic rates or, similarly, draws on demographic methods to confirm and strengthen the results of an ethnographic study (Bernardi 2003, Castle 1995, Greenhalgh 1994).
7. Theoretical challenges in Anthropological Demography
Anthropological demography contributed in providing a redefinition and a critical use of the concept like culture, economy, gender, as well as institutions in relation to demographic phenomenon. Now-a-days, the use of culture in analysis of several demographic phenomenons is at the main focus of demographers renewed interest in anthropological theory. Hammel in 1990 describes how the concept of culture in anthropology has been used alternatively as “an identifier of social groups, a body of autonomous traditions, a set of coherently patterned behaviors, and a determiner of human action.” The human behavior is modeled by the culture in the respective society. The distinction between models of reality and the models for reality by Clifford Geertz’s inspire Hammel to propose a parallel distinction: culture for the people and culture by the people. Culture for the people by which peoples actions were determined by the blueprint of culture provided to them. Where as in culture by the people represents the way n which social actors perceives the world and attribute significance and symbolic meaning to social behavior. In this sense culture has the frame of the possible paths available but the actual path taken is the matter of choice of individual.
There are three challenges in anthropological demography to incorporate culture in demography. First, variable e.g., education, age are informed by the cultural setting. For example, education is related to higher age at firth birth among Beti women in Cameroon because schooling is related to have a good reputation and local respectability (Johnson-Hanks 2006). Second, symbolic system of reference is very important and attentive to the anthropological demographer in population studies to modify or introduce new contextual variables into behavioral model. Susan Short’s fieldwork in China more clearly defined the characteristics of women’s employment than the division of waged and unwaged. Different level of intensities and degree of compatibility with childbearing time could be appreciated (cited in Bernardi 2002). And the third, the complexity of individual motivations must be interpreted by anthropological demographer beyond the local pattern of behavior. In rural Gambia, Bledsoe and his colleagues found that the use of western contraceptive is consistent among Gambian women’s interest yet there is a motivation in bearing as many children as possible. Due to this process, use of contraceptive does not serve the goal of limiting fertility. The adult children are the most important source of wealth as well as social respect for women.
Put crudely, there are two ways in which anthropologists and non-anthropological demographers can collaborate. One is to employ anthropologists to assist mainstream demographic research. This follows from an emphasis on anthropology’s methodological contribution. In this context, anthropologists can be employed to do fieldwork which will allow survey researchers to design better questions or feed ethnographic information that can be used to contextualize the results of demographic studies. Ethnographic work can, along similar lines, be used to generate variables at an ethnic group level which can be entered into statistical models in which populations are compared
8. Rates and ratio used in Anthropological demography
Statistical data are the raw material of demography to find out how many people or events were present at a certain period or place. These are actual numbers. How many birth, how many deaths occurred last year, how many children aged between 5-14 were counted last year, these answers were given in absolute numbers. School facilities, maternal welfare services all these information that is needed.
The percentage figures are ratios. It is a single term indicating the relative size of two numbers. If p and q is two numbers, a ratio between the two is, or p divided by q. It measures the size of the first
number (p) in terms of the other (q). It does not depend on the size of the either number, but on the relation in size between them. Thus the ratios of 5 to 10, of 30 to 60, of 100 to 200 are equal.
Ratios provide quick and concise comparisons between many corresponding sets of numbers. Percentage figures are called “ratios based on 100.”
8.1. Types of ratios
Ratios in demography differ in some important respect, some time restrict the manner in which they were interpreted.
a. Ratio involving one universe. The ratio of , where p and q are from the same universe. Universe means the aggregate of the individual that is under discussion.
b. Proportion. This is also a ratio of two numbers from the same universe, but it is s distinct category within the type above. It is calculated as: the numerator is included in the denominator.
c. Ratio of two numbers from different universe. The ratio of , where p is from one universe, q from another.
8.2. Sex Ratio
Sex ratio is the ratio of males to females. This is not difficult, because sex is classified unequivocally one into two category, male or female. The ratio of the two numbers is called sex ratio and calculated as:
where,
M is the number of males recorded in some statistical universe of persons
F is the number of females in the same universe
K is an arbitrary factor of 100 (1000)
The sex ratio is an example of the first type of ratio, which is calculated from the two numbers from the same universe, mentioned previously. The sex composition of a population may also be calculated as proportions.
For example, in the Table1, data from 1944 Mauritius census shows that among the total 419185 person, males and females are 210326 and 208859 respectively. Thus a sex ratio is obtained from this
data by dividing or 1.007 or 1.007 × 1000 is equal to 1007(K = 1000). It indicates that the
number of males was 1.007 times higher than the number of females. Sex ratios at different ages follow the same pattern.
8.3. Child woman ratio
Like the expression a/b, which is called ‘ratio a to b’; the sex ratio is referred to as a ‘ratio of males to females’. Like the same way, child –woman ratio is used to measure the incidence of child bearing of adult woman. It is the number of children under 5 years of age per 1000 women of ‘child bearing age’ (between 15- 49 years of age). It is calculated as
P 0-4 is the number of children, both sexes, under 5 years of age
F 15-49 is the number of females between ages 15- 49 years of age.
K is 1000.
Child woman ratio is especially useful where there is no adequate registration of births, even after registration of birth; the data are not published for all groups in the population whose fertility is under study. It does not refer to any actual number of births, but rather to the census population of child between 0-4 ages.
For example, the Table 1 shows that the number of children in 0-4 age group is 50810 and the number
of mothers of 15-49 age groups is 107558. Thus the child woman ratio is × 1000 or 472.
8.4. Population density
It is a ratio of the number of people to the area of land that they occupy. The ratio is calculated as
Where,
Pi is the number of person in the subdivision i of the country
Ai is the number of square kilometers of land area in the same subdivision.
8.5. Crude Death Rate
It is the ratio of the total registered deaths of some specified year to the total population, multiplied by 1000. It is calculated as
D is the total number of deaths registered during the calendar year (1st January to 31st December)
P is the total number of population of the same year.
K is 1000(100).
8.6. Crude Birth Rate
It is a ratio of total registered live birth to the total population, in some specific year, multiplied by 1000. It is calculated as
B is the total number of birth registered during the calendar year (1st January to 31st December)
P is the total number of population of the same year.
K is 1000(100).
8.7. General Fertility rate
It is referred to as a ratio of “births per 1000 women of child bearing age,” being a general ratio in the sense that it attributes all births to all women within these age limit, without further distinctions among them. It is calculated as
B is the number of live birth registered during the year
Pi is the number of women between ages 15-49.
K is 1000(100).
8.8. Age Specific Birth Rate
The age-specific fertility rate measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group. Unless otherwise specified, the reference period for the age-specific fertility rates is the calendar year. They are computed as follows
Where,
bi is the number of births registered during the year to women in the age interval i
Pi is the number of women in the same age group.
K is 1000 (100).
For example the table (Table 2) presented below shows the age specific fertility rate. The ASFR of the different age group i.e. >20(less than) years, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44,45 and above are 1.09, 0.89, 0.51, 0.32, 0.13, 0.03, 0.03 respectively.
8.9. Total Fertility Rate
It is the number of live birth per women completing her reproductive life if her child bearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates.
The TFR is calculated as:
For example, the table (Table 2) presented below shows the age specific fertility rate, thus the total fertility rate is 1.09+0.89+0.51+0.32+0.13+0.03+0.03)= 3.00
8.10. Infant Mortality Rate
Infants in demography are defined as an exact age group, namely age ‘0’ or those children in the first year of life. It is a ratio of registered deaths of infants during a year to the live births registered during the same year. It is calculated as
Where,
do is the number of deaths below age one registered during the year
- b is the number of live birth registered during the same year. K is 1000(100).
8.11. Age Specific Death Rate
To compute specific rates, it is necessity to have data divided into classes. Age specific death rates are calculated as follows
Where,
di is the number of deaths during the year in the i th age group.
Pi is the total number of population in the same age group.
K is 1000(100).
8.12. Maternal Mortality Rate
It is the number of maternal death per total number of live birth multiplied by 1000(100). It is calculated as
8.13. Selection Intensity Index
Reproductive efficiency and fertility is one of the major factor in which selective fitness of a population depends. Hence, total selection pressure of a population is measured in terms of differential fertility and mortality. J.F. Crow (1958) had devised an index to measure the maximum potential rate of change by taking into account the differential fertility and differential mortality. He named this index ‘Index of Total Selection Intensity’ and later changed into ‘Index of Opportunity for selection’ (Crow 1966). This measure reflects the maximum opportunity for changes in gene frequencies due to selection not the actual change.
Crows Index or the Index of opportunity for selection (I) is calculated as
Where,
Im is the index of mortality and calculated, Im=Pd/Ps,
Pd is the probability of deaths up to pre -reproductive age,
Ps is the probability of survival up to reproductive age,
If is the index of selection due to fertility, If=Vf / X2
Vf is the variance due to fertility,
X is the mean number of live births per women who have attained their menopause.
Later it has been modified by Johnston and Kensinger (1971) to incorporate prenatal mortality. Their index is as follows,
where,
Ime is the index of prenatal mortality (embryonic and foetal death), Ime = Ped/Pb Imc is the index due to childhood mortality, Imc = Pcd/Ps
Ped is the proportion of embryonic and foetal death and Pb is the proportion of the survivors to birth and is (1- Ped), and Pcd is the proportion of individual dying before 15 years age and If is (Vf/X2).
The value of the index varies from population to population, for example modernization tends to lower the value of the index due to lower death rates and reduction in family size. Modern medical facilities and public health care have successfully reduced infant mortality (Sphuler 1976, Ward 1976). In India, Reddy and Chopra (1990) suggest that the value of Im and the value of I decreased from the socio economically less developed to more developed groups. The lesser value is more pronounced and significant from rural to urban populations.
8.14. Effective Population Size
Human populations consisting of large number of individual of different ages, however not all the member reach up to reproductive age and mate. The numbers of the individual who contribute to the genetic composition of the population are called effective population excluding those who do not leave offspring or died before reaching reproductive age. They have nothing to do with the genetic composition of the next generation. The size of the effective population is called ‘effective population size.’ The number of effective population may be less than the total number of the population. Communities with large and small demographic structure may present the effective population size in the same order of magnitude. The effective population size is a mathematical expression of an ideal population for comparison in the context of evolutionary mechanism.
The ‘effective population size’ (Ne) depends on the number of parents in the reproductive age group, the survivability of the children of the parents, mean number of the surviving children per couple and the variability in the number of the surviving children of the couples. S.Wright (Li 1955) proposed a formula for estimating the effective population size of a population
Ne is equal to effective population size, x is the average number of surviving children for estimating the effective population is the variance in the number of surviving off spring, and N is the number of parents contributing to the next generation.
8.15 Population Pyramid
Population pyramid also called age pyramid manifest the distribution of various age groups in a population. It forms a pyramid like structure when the population is growing. Population pyramid consists of two bar graphs, population plotted on the X-axis and age on the Y-axis, one shows male and the other shows female in five year age group. Males were generally shown on the left side and females on the left. Shrinking of the base or expanding of the base tells about the stability of the population.
Types of population pyramid
Population pyramids differs from countries. Four general types of population pyramids have been identified-
- Stable pyramid- it shows an unchanged pattern of fertility and mortality.
- Stationary pyramid- pyramid with low fertility and low mortality, similar to constrictive pyramid.
- Expansive pyramid-very wide at the base, shows high birth and death rates.
- Constrictive pyramid- shows older population on average, population with long life expectancy
Population pyramid (Ref: Population Pyramid, Oregon State University)
A population which is stable does not necessarily remains fixed in size. It may be shrinking or expanding.
9. Summary
- Demography, by definition, is numerical portrayal of a human population. It comes from the Greek word demos for “the people” and graphy implies “writing or description.” The study of size, structure as well as distribution of population is the basic subject of demography. Demography is basically concerned with the behavior of the aggregate not that of an individual.
- There are three vital process in human population i.e. birth, death and migration through which a population is changing. Demographic studies provide an empirical foundation on which other social sciences are built.
- The first study in demographic sense containing primitive life table was conducted by J.Graunt in 1939, shows that one third of the children in London died before reaching sixteen years.
- Generally, demography can be classified in to formal demography and population study. The former deals with fertility, mortality migration, and marriage formation, dissolution of this union, age structure, and spatial distribution of human population etc where the later is concerned with population composition and various factors of population changes from substantive viewpoints anchored in another disciplines.
- Demography is mostly quantitative and more accurate in nature. Demography conducts its works with other disciplines in interdisciplinary way. It is the most applied discipline of science.
- Demography largely focuses on data and quantitative analysis. Anthropology, especially socio cultural anthropology truly focuses on theories and methods, ideology, power. Demographers invited anthropologist to incorporate theories and methods for the better understanding of the demographic phenomenon.
- Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography which uses anthropological theory and method to provide better understanding of demographic phenomenon in the current and past population. As a discipline, its emergence is gradual and is under development. The development of anthropological demography stated after 1980s.
- Among several other scholar, E.A. Roth, Hammel, Bernardi, N. Howell, Caldwell, Kertzer and Fricke, Johnson-Hanks, Borgerhoff Mulder, Balk were the renowned anthropological demographer.
- Anthropological demography as well as demography uses several methods and calculation to find out the population status. For example, sex ratio, fertility rate, age specific fertility rate, mortality rate, age specific mortality rate, population density, maternal mortality etc are used to determine the population status.
- Anthropological demography, newly growing discipline and grown from the interest of demographers to incorporate anthropological theories to demographic phenomenon. The specific concepts like culture, gender will be introduced in anthropological demography for better understanding the demographic phenomenon.
- Fertility, mortality and migration, all these factors had an important effect on population. Differential fertility and differential mortality are the two components which determine whether a population is under selection pressure or not. J.F. Crow introduce an index known as ‘selection intensity index’ to calculate the population pressure.
- All the member of a population not always contribute to the next generation genetic composition due to infertility, death before reaching reproductive age or non-marital status. Thus the rest of the member can contribute to the next generation genetic composition. These populations are called effective population and the size of the population is called ‘effective population size’ and the size is often lesser than the total population size.
Table 1: Population of Mauritius, 1944 census.
Table 2: Household Survey Data, 2013 Chandipur village.
Figures in parenthesis indicate actual number of live birth (source: Kalam Mir Azad 2013. Anthropological Demographic Study of Khotta Muslims of Malda district, West Bengal, Unpublished M.Sc. dissertation, Dept. of Anthropology, University of Calcutta, 2013)
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Web Reference
http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/5.Human_Populations/5h.pyramids_web.p df